Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
230 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2001

...FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TSRA EARLY...ALONG WITH -SHRA AND
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...

.CURRENT OVERVIEW...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAIN FEATURE ON THE
SURFACE MAP REMAINS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF LOCATED JUST WEST OF KDVL
TO JUST EAST OF KBIS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL HOLDING JUST BELOW SVR
CRITERIA ATTM. ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE TROF IS CONTINUING TO
DESTABILIZE WITH CAPES CURRENTLY 1000-1300 J/KG. ALSO AN AREA OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS RIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE MIDDLE 50S. MODEL
OF CHOICE CONTINUES TO BE THE ETA. FWC SEEMS TO HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND MAV LOOKS TO COOL.

.NEAR TERM...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS THE
CWFA TONIGHT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF. THIS TROF LOOKS TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
WILL HANG ON UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. STILL EXPECT
THAT SVR THREAT WILL BE FROM NOW UNTIL 00Z WHEN TROF MOVES INTO MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM
LARGE HAIL. THIS WILL BE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS WEST.
WILL TRY TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT KDVL THIS EVENING.
AROUND MIDNIGHT RED RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT OUT
EAST. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN CWFA LATER TONIGHT.
WITH 50H COLD POOL NEAR THIS AREA...WILL GO FOR WIDELY SCT TO ISOLD
-SHRA RE-DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DEVILS LAKE ZONE SET.

.LONG TERM...50H LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL RIGHT OVER THE
CWFA ON FRIDAY. SUN IF ANY WILL QUICKLY SELF DESTRUCT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES TO MENTION THUNDER ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY. MAV SEEMS TO COOL AND FWC
LOOKS WAY TO WARM FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.
HOWEVER WITH THE 50H LOW CONFIGURATION...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDS
TO BE WEST OF THE FGF CWA. AFTER THE BUMP IN THE STRING OF GOOD DAYS
ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY SHOWS IMPROVEMENT. AS 50H LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE ITS PLACE. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY CLOSER TO THE 50H COLD AIR POOL.

EXTENDED...H5 RIDGING OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE
DISRUPTED BY INCOMING H5 LOW ON MONDAY. COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW WILL DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TIMING IS A BIT SLOWER TODAY SO WILL REMOVE SUNDAY NIGHT
THUNDERSTORM WORDING. SYSTEM IS FARTHER SOUTHWEST THIS RUN WITH
STRONGEST VORT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND. RIDGING REAMPLIFIES LATER IN
PERIOD AS WARMING T@REND BEGINS.

.FGF...NONE.

BRAZZELL/DONAVON