Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
350 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2001

TREND OF RISING POPS THRU MON AND TUE STILL LOOKS LOGICAL AND CHC OF
RAIN MAY CONT WED AND THU.  DATA AVBL AT HAND FM 00Z 25 AUG AND
AGAIN 00Z 26 AUG...ATTEMPTS TO INDICATE LINGERING CHC OF RAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS WEAK TROF OR WEAKNESS IN SUBTROP HI...THAT EVENTUALLY
EVOLVES FOR LATE AUG 2001...OVR S CNTRL TX STAYS IN LIGHT WIND FIELD
ALOFT.   700 TO 300 MB TROF/LOW TO THE NW OF S CNTRL TX STILL FCST
TO MOVE FURTHER SE THRU MON...ALLOWING A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE OR
LESS STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO FORM IN LATE AUGUST MARITIME TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT BELOW 700 MB.  THE 700 TO 300 MB TROF MAY BE MORE OF A
CUTOFF ON THE EXTREME SW PART OF THE LARGER SCALE MID LAT TROF THAT
HAS MOVED ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION.  BY THE TIME THIS FEATURE AT
700 TO 300 MB ARRIVES OVR S CNTRL TX WEAK TROF IS FCST BY DATA AVBL
AT HAND AS OF THIS WRITING.  AT ANY RATE WL CONT TO SHOW MORE CLOUDS
AND RISING POPS THRU MON.  TUE THRU THU APPEARS TO BE CHC OF RAIN
ALSO...BECAUSE FCSTS CONT TO SHOW RELATIVELY MODERATE TO HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT OVR WESTERN U.S. TUE TO THU...WITH MODERATE
AMPLITUDE TROF VCNTY GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AREA.  ANOTHER SMALL
SCALE S/W TROF IS FCST TO MOVE TOWARD AREA WED AND THU...THRU THIS
WIND FIELD ALOFT.  BY FRIDAY THE WEAK TROF ALOFT MAY CONT OVR S
CNTRL TX IN THE WEAK WIND FIELD...HOWEVER AFTER FRIDAY OR AS
SOON AS FRI NIGHT...PROGS SHOW MORE ENERGY IN WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH PULLING WEAK TROF EAST OF S CTNRL TX AND ALLOWING RDG TO THE
WEST TO INCREASE OVR AREA AGAIN.  THIS CONTS TO SIGNAL LOWER POPS
NEXT WEEKEND ON SAT AND SUN.  BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...AROUND AND
AFTER LABOR DAY...MEDIUM RANGE DATA STILL ATTEMPTS TO FCST
ANOTHER UPPR AIR TROF COMING FM THE N AND NE...PSBLY CAUSING POPS TO
RISE TO NEAR TO ABOVE EARLY SEP NORMALS.

PRELIMS...
AUS 071/091 071/090 5545
DRT 071/092 072/092 5545
SAT 073/092 072/091 5545

.EWX...NONE.

08/09/23

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-262300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
415 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2001

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY TO MID PART OF THIS WEEK
FOR PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

A LATE AUGUST WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND EAST FROM WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CAUSING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.  AN ABUNDANCE OF MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS AVAILABLE TO INTERACT
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF AUSTIN TO SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO...ALONG THE
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER PARTS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY TO WEST OF DEL RIO.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND MAY FORM FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS CALLING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  BY NEXT WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS ARE IN THE FORECAST.

ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.