Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Eureka, CA

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
220 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2001

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED TODAY. APPROACHING SFC LOW
BEGINNING TO TURN E-NE TOWARD OR-CA BORDER AND INTENSIFYING. ETA AND
AVN DID NOT INITIALIZE SFC LOW WELL...BOTH MODELS PLACED POSITION OF
LOW TOO FAR TO N AND E...COMPARED TO SATELLITE AND HPC SFC
ANALYSIS...SO TRACK OF SFC LOW WILL BE FURTHER S THAN MODELS
INDICATE. OTHERWISE...GENERAL TRENDS OF AVN CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER
THAN ETA...AND AVN GIVEN GREATEST WEIGHT THIS FCST. STRONG LINE OF
CONVECTION FAST APPROACHING AHEAD OF SFC LOW...WITH GOOD DIFLUENCE
ALOFT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LTG PLOT SHOWS LOTS OF
STRIKES...SO HAVE ADDED SCT TSTMS TO ZONES 1 AND 2 THIS MORNING.
BELIEVE WITH STRONG UPPER COLD AIR FOLLOWING IN BEHIND...ABOUT -30
TO -32 C AT 500 MB...AND LIS BELOW ZERO ACCORDING TO AVN...OCNL
TSTMS A DECENT BET THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH
LATER IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR WILL NOSE IN THERE. STRONG WRAP
AROUND PRECIP ALREADY TAKING SHAPE...SO WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL
POPS TONIGHT ALL AREAS. THE OTHER PROBLEM TODAY IS WIND. QUIKSCAT
WINDS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS...WITH
A FEW ISOLD 50 KTS...ROUNDING BASE OF THE SFC LOW AND THIS AREA OF
STRONG WIND WILL HIT THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. AVN MSLP GRADIENT
ALSO IMPRESSIVE. ACV-SFO PRESSURE DIFFERENCE INCREASING...NOW ABOUT
6 MB...AND FCST BY AVN TO BE CLOSE TO 12 MB LATER TODAY. WILL ISSUE
WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1 AND 2 THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOMEWHAT
LESSER WINDS INLAND ZONES. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT...BUT POST
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND BACK SIDE OF LOW TO CONTINUE
CHANCE SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE
MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM NW...WITH A WARM FRONT DROPPING
FROM GULF ALASKA. THICKNESS VALUES LOWER...SO WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS
ACCORDINGLY...DOWN TO ABOUT 2000 FEET NORTHERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...DECENT AGREEMENT ON A BROAD RIDGE FOR
FRIDAY...COULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHERN ZONES DRY...BUT WILL KEEP
CHANCE RAIN OR MTN SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES.

POPS CEC +9577 ACV/EKA +9567 UKI +8434

.EKA...GALE WARNING PT ST GEORGE TO CAPE MENDOCINO 0 TO 60 NM.
    ...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY REDWOOD AND MENDOCINO COAST
    ...WINTER STORM WARNING UPPER TRINITY RIVER ABOVE 4000 FEET.