Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
251 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2001

CERTAINLY NO LACK OF CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE.  SUPPOSE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES WOULD BE TIMING OF TSRA...INTENSITY AND QPF RELATED
CONCERNS.

TSRA DEVELOPED ON WARM FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.  ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
REGENERATE ALONG/NEAR WARM FRONT.  WAA THERE...THOUGH REALLY NOT ALL
THAT STRONG...SO WEAK WAVE BARELY NOTICEABLE ON H2O LOOP MUST BE
HELPING SUSTAIN ACTIVITY.  LACK OF STRONG FORCING CERTAINLY SAYS
SOMETHING ABOUT THE INSTABILITY.  MODELS ADVERTISE STRONGER WAVE FOR
THIS AFTN WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY EASY TO INDENTIFY EITHER...THOUGH
SOMETHING APPEARS TO BE ENTERING SWRN OK ATTM.  BOTTOM LINE HERE IS
THAT TIMING OF TSRA IS VERY DIFFICULT.  LOCATION NOT SO EASY
EITHER.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
MODELS SHOW WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...SO
CONVECTION MAY GO WITH IT.  WILL PROBABLY JUST BLANKET LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CWA.

WILL PROBABLY GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SVR IN MOST ZONES...CERTAINLY
THOSE THAT APPEAR TO BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ALSO CONSIDERED A FF WATCH...AS SOME AREAS WILL MOST DEFINITELY
RECEIVE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND WITH GROUND STILL QUITE MOIST...MAY
HAVE SOME PRETTY GOOD RUNOFF.  HOWEVER...WITH WARM FRONT ON THE
MOVE...WILL PROBABLY JUST MENTION +RA FOR NOW.

MAY NEED FF WATCH TONIGHT...BUT WOULD PREFER TO ALLOW DAY CREW TO
GET BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS.  TRICKY TO IDENTIFY JUST WHICH FEATURE
WILL KICK OFF ACTIVITY TONIGHT.  LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ONE MORE SHORT
WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN WAVE.  LLJ REALLY STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...THE NOSE
OF WHICH WILL BE PUSHING INTO WRN COUNTIES AROUND 06Z...ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT WITH WHEN DRYLINE ACTIVITY MAY COME RACING IN FROM SW.

WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR ERN ZONES ON WED GIVEN LOCATION OF
DRYLINE.  TOUGH CALL ON WRN ZONES POPS.  HAVE A FEELING DRYLINE WILL
COME THROUGH TOO EARLY...BUT WILL ONLY CUT BACK TO 50 PROBABLY.

TEMPS QUITE THE CONUNDRUM.  STRATUS HAS NEARLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF CWA
FROM NE.  WOULD THINK THAT IT WOULD GET SHOVED NORTHWARD ONCE WARM
FRONT MOVED THROUGH.  A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HANG TOUGH
FOR MOST OF DAY...SO WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS.  TEMPS MAY NOT
FALL MUCH TONIGHT...WITH ONLY WET BULB PROCESSES TO COOL THINGS DOWN.
TEMPS MAY HOP UP QUITE A BIT AFTERC DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH WED.  MAY
NOT GO QUITE AS WARM AS CURRENT ZFP...BUT MUCH WARMER THAN FWC
VALUES.

.EAX...
KS...NONE
MO...NONE

MANION

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST:  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS AGAIN POSSIBLE.
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH TOMORROW WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AS WELL.  SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION:  A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  THIS FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM
WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AND WILL HAVE SOME
WIND SHEAR PRESENT...SO SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

OUTLOOK:  THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH A DRY LINE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MJM

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1219 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1215 AM    7 S HIGGINSVILLE          MO   65 MPH TSTM GUST AND
04/10/01   LAFAYETTE                      0.75 INCH HAIL
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1216 AM    MAYVIEW                   MO   .88 INCH HAIL
04/10/01   LAFAYETTE                      REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.