Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
350 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2001

KTOP LINE PROBLEMS. CURRENTLY ASSISTING KICT IN SVC BACKUP MODE AND
TAKING ON WARNING RESPONSIBILITIES FOR ERN PTN OF THEIR CWA UFN.

WILL BE WATCHING SE NEB THRU W CNTRL IA PTN OF CDFNT FOR INITIAL AND
LIKELY SEVERE TSTM DVLPMT BTN 21Z-23Z. AMS HAS BCM VERY UNSTBL WITH
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500J AND SFC BASED LI FM -7 TO -10 OVR SE
NEB/SW IA. CU CURRENTLY FLAT LOOKING ON STLT IMAGERY AS CAP NOTED ON
18Z OAX SOUNDING HOLDS BACK EXPLOSIVE GROWTH OF CNVTN. APCHG MID/UPR
LVL WLY WIND MAX HAS MOVED INTO CNTRL NEB AND SHUD AID IN CNVTV
DVLPMT WITHIN THE NEXT CPL OF HRS. ACTVTY EXPCD TO MOV INTO NW MO
ERY THIS EVE. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ACRS NRN TIER OF
CNTYS THIS EVE AS DEEPER MSTR FM GLF MEX ARRIVES. ACTVTY LIKELY TO
MOV SEWD DURING THE NGT. THINK AREAS S OF HGHWY 36 WILL NOT SEE ANY
ACTION TILL AFT MIDNIGHT AND WILL WORD ZONES ACCORDINGLY. CDFNT
EXPCD TO MOV THRU NRN CWA OVERNGT WITH MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
50S BHND FNT. OVERALL FAVOR MESO-ETA/ETA HANDLING OF FNTL BNDRY AND
QPF.

BEST RAIN THREAT ON FRI WILL BE SRN HLF OF CWA AND WILL USE LIKELY
WORDING. HVY RAIN PTNL ALSO EXISTS DURG THE MRNG FOR SRN THIRD OF
CWA AS ANOTHER CNVTV COMPLEX COULD FORM OVR E CNTRL KS BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND TRK SE INTO SRN CWA. CLDS/PCPN WILL HOLD BACK WRMG AND
GUID NOT TOO BAD. NW MO SHUD BE ABLE TO PARTIALLY CLR OFF DURG THE
AFTN.

DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CWA FRI NGT/SAT AS CNDN SFC HIGH
BLDS SWD. MID/UPR LVL RDG BUILDS OVR CNTRL U.S. NR NORMAL TEMPS
EXPCD.

WILL DROP MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SUN NGT THRU MON AS NEXT SYS WILL
STAY N OF CWA TILL FROPA MON NGT. SO WILL MENTION CHC TSTMS MON
NGT/TUE.

.EAX...
KS...NONE
MO...NONE

JULY

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2001

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

FORECAST: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS BEGINNING ANYTIME AFTER 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION AFTER 10 PM. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE...SINKING SOUTH TO AN
I-70 LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IOWA MISSOURI BORDER. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS AN ADDITIONAL THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS.

DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO A ST JOSEPH TO
MACON LINE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK:  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

JULY