Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Detroit, MI

000 
WGUS53 KDTX 310552
FFWDTX
MIZ049-310800-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
151 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2001

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR HURON COUNTY UNTIL 4 AM EDT...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUED OVER HURON 
COUNTY AT 150 AM.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE 
INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAD DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 
1245 AM.  HOWEVER...OVER 7 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY HAD OCCURRED IN AN 
AREA BETWEEN CASEVILLE AND PORT AUSTIN...NEAR PORT CRESCENT STATE 
PARK...SINCE 1040 PM THURSDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST ACROSS HURON COUNTY AT LEAST THROUGH 330 AM.  ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE CASEVILLE AND PORT AUSTIN AREAS WILL AVERAGE 
AROUND AN INCH BETWEEN 2 AM AND 330 AM...WHICH COULD PUSH RAINFALL 
TOTALS LOCALLY OVER 8 INCHES NEAR M 25 BETWEEN CASEVILLE AND PORT 
AUSTIN.  AT 1248 AM...A RAINFALL SPOTTER FROM PORT AUSTIN REPORTED 
THAT NEARLY 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE THE THUNDERSTORMS 
BEGAN LATE THURSDAY EVENING...AND AT THAT TIME...RAIN WAS FALLING AT 
NEARLY AN INCH PER HOUR IN MODERATE TO VERY HEAVY BURSTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR
CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS SHOULD AVOID
CAMPING ALONG STREAMS OR CREEKS DURING THREATENING RAINS.

BT DJF

WGUS73 KDTX 310703
FFSDTX
MIZ049-310715-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
303 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2001

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR HURON COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 300 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY 
RAINFALL HAD ENDED IN HURON COUNTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG M 25... 
BETWEEN CASEVILLE AND PORT AUSTIN. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH ABOUT 6 AM ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED IN 
HURON COUNTY...MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ANY STANDING WATER ON 
AREA ROADS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR 
CABLE TELEVISION FOR LATER FORECAST INFORMATION.

BT

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
317 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2001

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE LOWER PENINSULA. BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXTENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS IS NOT A
REAL DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BEST LIFT WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA... WITH
BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF THE STATE. ETA DOES
SHOW A LITTLE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 250MB
JET OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM NEAR ALPENA TO LUDINGTON AND THIS IS PROBABLY
INDICATIVE OF THIS JET SUPPORT. THERE ARE ALSO SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN IN THE AREA OF BEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT DUE TO THE JET SUPPORT AND JUST CHANCE ON THE
SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION AND WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE
DURING PRIME HEATING TIME. BUFKIT/BUFSHARP SOUNDINGS FROM JUST TO
OUR SOUTH  WERE SHOWING AROUND 2K JOULES OF CAPE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS POINT WILL JUST CARRY A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTH... BUT IF THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER US THEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING FROPA... WITH 900-850MB RH RISING TO 80 PERCENT OR GREATER
OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY... PLUS WE
SHOULD HAVE SOME CYCLONIC FLOW OVER US. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUITE A
BIT OF CU/SC DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC... THUS WE SHOULD
SEE CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUITE
RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING THE 40S BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

NICE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL.

RATHER BENIGN PATTERN FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY CAMPED OVER THE REGION. A SERIES OF
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA... BUT THEY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THEREFORE... WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
HIGH DOES BEGIN TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AND THIS
ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA. GIVEN THAT
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT 7 DAYS DOWN THE LINE I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

.DTX...NONE.

KEYES

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-311000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1242 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2001

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK
OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE FLINT...PORT HURON...ANN
ARBOR AND DETROIT AREAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB
COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH SUNRISE. SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT...ALONG WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND HAIL UP
TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER. MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST AT
30 TO 40 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
STORMS...WITH LOCAL DOWNPOURS PRODUCING AN INCH OR TWO WITHIN AN
HOUR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. YOU CAN ALSO ACCESS THE
LATEST WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ON THE INTERNET AT

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/START.HTM (ALL LOWER CASE)

DWD