Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
230 AM CDT THU APR 5 2001

MAIN CHALLENGES THIS MORNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION...EVOLUTION AND
EXTENT/STRENGTH OF SEVERE.  WINDS OF SECONDARY CONCERN LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR FLO THIS MORNING PROGRESSING ALONG IN THE BIG
PICTURE AS PROGS HAVE INDICATED FOR SOME TIME.  FINAL SHORT IS
BOTTOMING OUT PER H20 VAPOR OVR BAJA CA.  PROBABLY SOME TOUGH TO
FIND EMBEDDED SHORTS IN THE FLOW OVR PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES TOO. LIKELY
ONE OVR NEB RIGHT NOW HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION AT NOSE OF LLJ
IN CEN/ERN NEB ATTM.  ANOTHER OVR WEST TX TOO. AT THE SFC...WEAK NRN
STREAM TROF AS PUSHED TO IA/MO BORDER AND ESSENTIALLY FRONT OVR KS
AND THIS ONE HAVE COMBINED INTO ONE.  EXPECT THIS TO BE FOCUS TODAY
FOR 1ST ROUND OF CONVECTION (2ND IF THIS ERN NEB CONVECTION EXPANDS
EAST).  PLENTY OF FUEL IN KS/MO AND SOUTH AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO
PUSH FARTHER NORTH TODAY AS SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF DESERT SW AND WINDS
BACK A BIT.  HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT PUSHES DURING MAX HEATING TO
CONTROL CONVECTIVE TYPE AND TEMPS.  GIVEN METARS AND IR...COULD BE
PLENTY OF GRUNGE AROUND TO LIMIT HEATING.  TOUGH FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...GOING CAST HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND.  A LOOK AT THE KF
OFF THE ISU SITE SHOWS ETA IS TRYING TO PICK UP ELEVATED CONVECTION
THIS MORNING.  WILL RUN WITH SOME SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...MODIFIED BY RADAR TRENDS AT 09Z.  SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WITH
THIS STUFF.  EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH BACK INTO SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON.
GREAT SETUP OVER WRN IA AND POINTS SOUTHWEST...ESP KS.  WILL NOT
COVER WHATS ALREADY IN DAY1...BUT IN SHORT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH
SHEAR TODAY FOR A BIG SUPERCELL OUTBREAK.  NONETHELESS... WILL
EXPAND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE INTO SRN PART OF STATE AND HIT
IT PRETTY HARD IN CITO FOR SRN HALF.  ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PUSHING ALONG AROUND WARP 2. TEMPS WARMEST
SOUTH AND SHOULD SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP INTO AT LEAST BREEZY
CATAGORY.

TONIGHT...LARGE SYSTEM STREAKS TO NE IN PLAINS.  LARGE DRY PUNCH OVR
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.  EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE...ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT...PLUS WITH ANY DRYLINE
INDUCED LINE THAT MAKES IT INTO CWA.  WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
WILL HIT WITH WINDY - BUT GUSTS TO 35 MPH.  TOO EARLY FOR
HEADLINES...EVEN A HIGH WIND WATCH AS WE DONT WANT TOO MANY
HEADLINES FLOATING AROUND. WELL HAVE ENOUGH OF THOSE LATER TODAY
INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING.

SATURDAY...WIND THE MAIN PROBLEM HERE...THO NEAREST MATURING
LOW...COULD SEE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH...IF THEY
DONT GET BLOW APART.  WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WINDY BUT NO HEADLINE
YET - SEE ABOVE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES.

.DSM...NONE

SEARCY