Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
250 PM CDT WED APR 11 2001

SVR WX WITH NO SIG TIME.  LAST LN ABT TO MOV THRU DSM ATTM AND WL
LFT NE OF CWA THIS EVE.  STG SLY WINDS BCMG W-NW POST DRY SLOT.  WL
GO WND ADVY TNGT THRU THU, THO CUD SEE WNDS DMSH THU AFTN.  NXT WK
SYS FRI NGT, AFT THAT A SAT NGT INTO SUN WK EVENT.  OPTED WITH MAV
GUID.
DSM 22-13   ALO 63-14

.DSM...WND ADVY ALL ZONES TNGT AND THU
MS APR 01

CENTRAL IOWA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1012 AM CDT WED APR 11 2001

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS WILL RACE NORTHEAST ACROSS
IOWA DURING THE DAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG WIND
FLOW AND WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES ACROSS IOWA TODAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER AND RISES IN STREAMS...BUT STORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH REDUCING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.

SEE SITE SPECIFIC DETAILS BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-112300-
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK
HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO
GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-
MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALGONA...AMES...ATLANTIC...BOONE...
CARROLL...CENTERVILLE...CHARITON...CRESTON...DENISON...DES MOINES...
ESTHERVILLE...FORT DODGE...GRINNELL...INDIANOLA...IOWA FALLS...
KNOXVILLE...LAMONI...MARSHALLTOWN...MASON CITY...NEWTON...
OSKALOOSA...OTTUMWA...PELLA...PERRY...WATERLOO...WAVERLY AND WEBSTER
CITY
1012 AM CDT WED APR 11 2001

* EVENT TIMING...AROUND NOON IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...BY 3 PM IN AN ARC
FROM FORT DODGE TO DES MOINES TO OTTUMWA AND AROUND 6 PM FROM MASON
CITY TO WATERLOO.

* THREAT CATEGORIES...
     TORNADO..........MODERATE
     DAMAGING WINDS...MODERATE TO HIGH
     LARGE HAIL.......LOW TO MODERATE
     FLASH FLOODING...LOW

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK...HIGH

* MISCELLANEOUS INFORMATION - THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER SITUATION WITH DAMAGING TORNADOES POSSIBLE. TORNADO WATCHES
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IOWA THIS MORNING AND FOR
POINTS NORTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
RULES AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

THREAT KEY:
    TORNADO.......... ANY TORNADO OCCURRENCE
    DAMAGING WINDS... WINDS >= 58 MPH
    LARGE HAIL....... HAIL >= 3/4 INCH DIAMETER
    FLASH FLOODING... FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINS WITHIN 6 HOURS
                      OF RAIN EVENT. POSES THREAT TO LIFE OR
                      PROPERTY.

THREAT CATEGORY KEY:  PROBABILITY OF THREAT OCCURRING WITHIN 25
                      MILES OF POINT WITHIN FORECAST AREA
    NONE....... NOT EXPECTED.  LESS THAN 5% ( 2% FOR TORNADOES)
    LOW........ 5-15% (2-15% FOR TORNADOES)
    MODERATE... 25-35%
    HIGH....... 45% OR GREATER

SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK KEY:
    NOT EXPECTED
    LOW........ ACTIVATION POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY
    MODERATE... POSSIBILITIES ABOUT 50-50
    HIGH....... ACTIVATION LIKELY

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PROBABILISTIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...GO
TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE AT
WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/PROBINFO.HTML .