Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
225 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2001

FORECASTS KEEP GETTING TOUGHER - HEAT SOUTH AND POPS MAIN CHALLENGE
AGAIN TODAY.

SFC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS STATE...FROM TKE TO CCY AND MOVING LITTLE.
TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN NRN CWA JUST NORTH OF FRONT AT NOSE OF
WHOPPING 20-25KT SW LLJ. PLENTY OF JUICE AVAILABLE THOUGH WITH 2.12
INCHES AT 00Z FOR PWATS AT OAX AND MID 70S DEWPOINTS ALONG/S OF
FRONT. 88D OHP SHOWING PRETTY GOOD RAINS...THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD.
SVN SPOTTER JUST CALLED IN WITH INCH PER HOUR RATES.  CORFIDI
VECTORS WOULD PULL THIS STUFF EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTHWARD NEXT FEW
HOURS. 50H RIDGE RETROGRADES NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY PUTTING CWA
IN NW FLOW. VORT MAX IN MONSOONAL FLO OVR NM/CO BORDER WILL PROVIDE
FOCUS JUST TO OUR WEST TONIGHT.

ETA CONTINUES TO PUSH FRONT AND PRECIP TOO FAR SOUTH. ITS NOT
BAD...JUST TOO FAR SOUTH.  ADJUSTED NORTH A HUNDRED MILES OR SO AND
IT LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE AVN - AND NEW HPC QPF.  WILL FOLLOW.

TODAY...COLD POOL FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH TO I80 WEST
OF I35 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE HEAT INDICES PUSH UP TO
DANGEROUS LEVELS AGAIN.  BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION MAY INHIBIT ALO
HI'S BETTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  WILL NO LONGER SPLIT DSM METRO
THOUGH AND HAVE INCLUDED DALLAS CO. IN NPW.  EXPECT PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO END THIS MORNING FAR NORTH. WILL HAVE TO RUN WDLY SCT...HEAVY
POTENTIAL...CENTRAL THIRD OF CWA...AND GO WITH AFTERNOON SMALL POPS
FAR SOUTH.  TEMPS...WARMEST GUID IN NPW AREA/LOWER MID 80S IN NORTH
HALF.

TONIGHT...INFLOW INTO WHATS LEFT OF BOUNDARY IS MINIMAL AT BEST
ALONG I-80 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAVE POPS IN WC CWA...AND
WILL LEAVE ALONG.  ALONG I-80 AND E OF 35...TOUGHER TO FIGURE OUT
WHATS TO DO...BUT A SMALL POP MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.  LATER IN WC
INTO SW...EXPECT A SMALL COMPLEX OF TSRA INDUCED BY AFOREMENTIONED
NM/CO VORT MAX TO PERHAPS BRUSH DNS TO CSQ LINE. LLJ AGAIN NOT GREAT
SO DON'T EXPECT TOO MUCH.  WILL HANDLE THAT WITH POPS TOO.  DRY
NORTH AND NE.  GUID TEMPS AND GOING FCST CLOSE ON TEMPS - NO REASON
TO DEVIATE.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...SEE LITTLE CHC FOAR RAIN AT THIS POINT.  GOING
'CAST ON TRACK.

.DSM...HEAT ADVY OVRNGT ROUGHLY ALG AND S OF A AIO TO DSM TO MIW
LINE LINE.
IAZ049-050-059>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-

CENTRAL IOWA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
535 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2001

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON AND OFF TODAY.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL HELP FUEL ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.  WHILE
INSTABILITY IS MODERATELY HIGH...WIND SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK AS IS
INFLOW INTO AND OVER THE FRONT.  WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
INHIBIT MOST THUNDERSTORMS FROM PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AND DEEP MOISTURE.

SEE SITE SPECIFIC DETAILS BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

IAZ004>007-015>017-031100-
CERRO GORDO-EMMET-HANCOCK-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALGONA...ESTHERVILLE AND MASON CITY
529 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2001

* EVENT TIMING... THROUGH NOON.

* THREAT CATEGORIES...
     TORNADO.......... NONE.
     DAMAGING WINDS... LOW.
     LARGE HAIL....... NONE.
     FLASH FLOODING... LOW.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK... LOW.

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>074-031100-
ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK
HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-
MADISON-MARION-MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-
WARREN-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AMES...ATLANTIC...BOONE...CARROLL...
DENISON...DES MOINES...FORT DODGE...GRINNELL...INDIANOLA...IOWA
FALLS...KNOXVILLE...MARSHALLTOWN...NEWTON...PELLA...PERRY...
WATERLOO...WAVERLY AND WEBSTER CITY
529 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2001

* EVENT TIMING... MAINLY THROUGH NOON.

* THREAT CATEGORIES...
     TORNADO.......... NONE.
     DAMAGING WINDS... LOW.
     LARGE HAIL....... NONE.
     FLASH FLOODING... LOW.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK... LOW.

IAZ075-081>086-092>097-031100-
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MONROE-RINGGOLD-
TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CENTERVILLE...CHARITON...CRESTON...
LAMONI...OSKALOOSA AND OTTUMWA
529 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2001

* EVENT TIMING... THROUGH 5 PM.

* THREAT CATEGORIES...
     TORNADO.......... NONE.
     DAMAGING WINDS... LOW.
     LARGE HAIL....... NONE.
     FLASH FLOODING... LOW.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK... LOW.

SEARCY

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THREAT KEY:
    TORNADO.......... ANY TORNADO OCCURRENCE
    DAMAGING WINDS... WINDS >= 58 MPH
    LARGE HAIL....... HAIL >= 3/4 INCH DIAMETER
    FLASH FLOODING... FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINS WITHIN 6 HOURS
                      OF RAIN EVENT. POSES THREAT TO LIFE OR
                      PROPERTY.

THREAT CATEGORY KEY:  PROBABILITY OF THREAT OCCURRING WITHIN 25
                      MILES OF POINT WITHIN FORECAST AREA
    NONE....... NOT EXPECTED.  LESS THAN 5% ( 2% FOR TORNADOES)
    LOW........ 5-15% (2-15% FOR TORNADOES)
    MODERATE... 25-35%
    HIGH....... 45% OR GREATER

SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK KEY:
    NOT EXPECTED
    LOW........ ACTIVATION POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY
    MODERATE... POSSIBILITIES ABOUT 50-50
    HIGH....... ACTIVATION LIKELY

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PROBABILISTIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...GO
TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE AT
WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/PROBINFO.HTML .