Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
230 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2001

ALL MODELS INITIALIZED ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. ALTHO ALL WERE A LITTLE
OFF ON THE LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW IN SODAK...MEAN LYR MSTR FIELDS
WERE PRETTY ACCURATE. TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE NE ABOUT THE SAME ON
EACH MODEL...WITH THE AVN SHOWING A SOMEWHAT DEEPER CENTRAL PRESSURE
BY THE TIME THE LOW REACHES LK SUP. THIS DIFF SHOULD NOT AFFECT FCST
MUCH AND WILL PRBLY USE A BLEND OF ETA AND AVN WHERE ANY DIFFS ARE
SIG. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CHANCES OF SVR THIS EVE WITH APPROACH OF
S/WV. WILL NOT REPEAT SWODY1 REASONING...BUT AGREE THAT BEST CHC
WILL BE S OF OUR CWA WHERE AMS WILL HAVE LONGER PD OF SFC HTG AND
BTR CHC TO BREAK CAP. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA OF HIGHEST CAPE AND
LOWEST LI VALUES THIS EVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT PSBLTY OF SVR OVR
OUR SRN TIER WHERE LI/S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH -6 WITH CAPES UP TO
2000 J/KG...AND WILL INCLUDE THIS WORDING IN NEW ZFP. ST LYR OVR
MUCH OF OUR CWA WILL RETARD SFC HTG AND HELP REINFORCE WFNT TO OUR S
AS A FOCUS FOR CNVCTV DVLMT. BEYOND 1ST PD...SFC HIGH SHOULD BRING A
RELATIVELY DRY PD...BUT WILL HAVE TO RETAIN AT A SLGT OR LOW CHC POP
FOR TUE NGT/WED AS UPR TROF SWINGS ACRS RGN AND LI/S DIP AGN TO ABT
-2. MODEL AGMT EXTENDS TO MOS PRODUCTS AS WELL...AND LOOKS RSNBL.
CLD CVR TNGT WILL ACT AGAINST BRIEF PD OF CAA. GOOD WAA NEVER GETS
STARTED...BUT FEWER CLDS ON TUE SHOULD HELP BOOST US BACK UP TO NEAR
70.

.DLH...NONE.

ERF