Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
250 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2001

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING...THEN CONVECTION
THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIODS.

ETA AND AVN IN DECENT AGREEMENT...AND FOLLOWED THE ETA FOR MOST OF
DETAILS.

STRONGEST CELLS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST CWA. SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH.
AIRMASS HEATED UP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BLOWOFF AND SHOWERS HAVE SINCE COOLED THEM
OFF...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 30KT FLOW SEEN AT THE WDL
PROFILER AT 850MB. THIS FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL KEEP THREAT OF STORMS IN FORECAST THIS
EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
STORMS STARTING TO FIRE IN EVEN JUICIER AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND THIS MAY ROB OUR STORMS OF SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE.
WILL TIME ENDING OF CONVECTION WITH 850MB TROUGH...WHICH WOULD PUT
FAR WESTERN ZONES IN ACTION ONLY INTO EARLY EVENING...AND EASTERN
ZONES TIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY...EXCEPT SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON. BETTER SHOT AT RAIN COMES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIFTING
WARM FRONT.

USED GUIDANCE...EXCEPT WENT A LITTLE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE SUN THAN MODELS
FORECAST.

.DLH...NONE.

MELDE

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-112000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1236 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2001

...SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THIS EVENING...
THREAT...
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CASS...CROW WING...PINE...BURNETT...
WASHBURN...SOUTHERN SAWYER AND AITKIN COUNTIES. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN
MANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A
WALKER TO GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH TO IRONWOOD LINE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SEVERE SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

MELDE