Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2001

MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE FORECAST PD. MDLS IN
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES BUT DIFFER A BIT WITH DETAILS AND
IN THE LONG TERM. WITH ETA PERHAPS A BIT AGREESIVE WITH LOW LVL
MSTR...BUT SEEMS MOST CONSISTENT OVR THE PAST SVRL DAYS. IR IMGS AND
CANADIAN RADAR SHOW ELEVATED COMPLEX JUST ENTERING N CENTRAL MN EARLY
THIS MRNG. STRONGEST CORE OF THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LVL
JET AND STG THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THICKNESS
PACKING. WITH AREA OF STRONGEST THETA-E ADV SHIFTING EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING MUCH OF NORTHEAST MN AND INTO NW WISCONSIN.
FCST SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A DECENT CAP IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LIMITED CONVECTION. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHES INTO THE REGION AS A POSSIBLE TRIGGER IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...MDLS SHOW
WARM BUT BENIGN PATTERN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT A STRONGER S/W MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. EXPECT
THIS SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL INTRODUCE A
PHANTOM PERIOD. CANADIAN SIMILAR TO ETA WITH S/W PUSHfES EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND DRIER...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONLY CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED WERE TO THE FIRST
PERIOD.

.DLH...NONE.

TOMALAK