Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2001

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MAIN FORECAST THREAT.

MODELS ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION EVENT.
WILL HAVE TO SLIGHTLY FAVOR ETA/MESOETA...WHICH HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SHORTWAVE POSITIONS.

STORMS WERE ALREADY FIRING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTN. MSAS LI AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WAS IN THE -7C RANGE AS OF 2 PM. THE VORT MAX IN EXTREME WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED
WITH H3 DIVERGENCE FROM A SOUTHERN CANADIAN JET WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SEVERE WORDING FOR THE EVENING IN THE ZONES.
NEW WATCH ALREADY OUT WHICH WILL INCLUDE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF NW WI
AS WELL...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL COME BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. WILL CONTINUE
THE SCATTERED SHOWER WORDING...WHICH SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH WITH
A SIZEABLE STRATOCUMULUS DECK.

THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MAY DIP
WAY DOWN INTO THE 30S IN THE TRADITIONAL COLDER SPOTS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AS +4C 850 TEMPS START TO PUSH IN. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD
WELL BE EVEN COLDER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN SOME AREAS.

MESOETA SURFACE TEMPS APPEAR TO BE IN LINE AND HAVE FOLLOWED
THEM FAIRLY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.DLH...NONE.

DAP