Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
331 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2001

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW
LEVEL CEILING DISSIPATION/RETREAT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE APEX DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. THE ETA SHOWS THIS VERY WELL ON THE 12Z RUN WHILE THE
AVN TAKES THE TROUGH TO THE EAST A LITTLE FASTER. AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FRONT ON A SLOW
PACE THROUGH NORTHERN MINNISOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS
SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR AMPLE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM SPINS UP THROUGH THE PVA SIDE OF THE TROUGH...BUT
WILL SEE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ONLY TO SEE SCENARIO
REPEAT ITSELF ONCE AGAIN AS HEATING OCCURS AGAIN TOMORROW ONLY
FARTHER EAST.

.DLH...NONE.

T.ERICKSON

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