Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP TIMING AND AMOUNTS AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES ALL PERIODS.

WATER VAPOR ATTM SHOWS UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH
TSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.  REGIONAL RADAR ALSO
SHOWING PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH VORT
MAX AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM.  20Z SURFACE METARS REVEAL THIS IS ALL
SNOW WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT SLIDING SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

12Z ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG 130KT JET EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A WEAKER 90KT JET NOSING INTO NORTH DAKOTA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE HEADED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  500H
SHOWED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH 120M HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF IT AT KFLG.  THIS INDICATES LOW SHOULD TRACK EAST
ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION AND HEAD TOWARDS CENTRAL PLAINS.
ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM VIA WV LOOP AND 700H ANALYSIS.

MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND ALL PROG UPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALL MODELS BRING STRONG VORT MAX INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH
DIFLUENT FLOW AT 500MB.  THESE DYNAMICS IN COMBINATION WITH COLD AIR
SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.  THE SOUTHEAST
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AIR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
ONLY SEE RAIN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS BUT CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HEAVIEST SNOW
IN MY NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.  THINK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL SET UP
IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WITH 3 TO 5 IN NORTHWEST
COUNTIES WITH 1 TO 3 LIKELY IN NORTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
THEREFORE WILL GO WITH WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
FOR THESE COUNTIES.  AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, DONT THINK
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE A PROBLEM, THINK RAIN WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
FAIRLY QUICKLY.  THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS SE
CWA OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW UNTIL UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD AND
LIFTS SURFACE LOW OUT OF PANHANDLE REGION ALLOWING COLD AIR TO SPILL
SOUTH ON BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW.  FOR TEMPERATURES, THINK GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH LOWS FROM MID 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MOST OF
CWA AND MID 30S SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS.  SUNDAY, AS
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER WESTERN KANSAS, AVN ADVERTISES DRY SLOT MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THINK THIS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 40S WITH SOME SUN.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE
UNDER CAA AND WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN LOWER
30S BUT WITH 40 TO 45 SOUTHEAST.  SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST AND SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES INTENSIFICATION THINK CHANCE FOR
SNOW IS STILL LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR FINALLY
SINKING INTO SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW.
HOWEVER, THINK MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE ON BACK SIDE
OF LOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS.  THINK LOWS WILL DIP INTO TEENS TO
AROUND 20 WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW ON GROUND IN MOST PLACES,
THEREFORE CUTTING GUIDANCE.  SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE
WINDY AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST.

MONDAY, UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT BUT UPPER ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE
THROUGH CWA SO WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SNOW GOING FOR ALL BUT FAR
NORTHWEST CWA.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN LOWER 30S ACCOUNTING FOR
SNOW COVER AND THEREFORE GOING BELOW GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO EXAMINE THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.S. THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY DIVES
INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EFFECTIVELY HOLDS THE
UPPER TROUGH BACK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AVN MODEL HAS THIS
SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  SHOULD SEE A FEW DAYS OF DRY BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER AS AREA IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  NEXT SYSTEM DIVING
DOWN INTO THE CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS IT
CONTINUES TO DIG. MRF PROGS THIS TROUGH TO SHEAR OUT AND BECOME
ELONGATED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
EVENTUALLY SPLIT WITH THE WESTERN ENERGY GOING FARTHER SOUTH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN THE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY REGIME
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION...ICT

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 029/032 022/033 024 776
GCK 027/032 018/032 022 +74
EHA 025/031 017/033 024 886
LBL 028/032 020/033 024 776
HYS 024/029 015/030 020 887
P28 034/043 024/037 026 765

.DDC...NONE.

COLEMAN/GERARD