Severe Thunderstorm Warning 351, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
304 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2001

UPPER VORT LOBE OVER NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SLOWLY MOVE
THIS FEATURE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS
ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER VORT, STILL CANT RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. THEREFORE, WILL PLAN
TO CONTINUE WITH POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EAST FOR TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS READINGS.

FOR MONDAY...WITH UPPER VORT ALONG KS/OK BORDER DECIDED TO KEEP A
LOW POP FOR THE SE CWA. FOR REST OF THE CWA, WILL WORD MOSTLY SUNNY.
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY,
THEREFORE, WILL WORD WINDS ACCORDINGLY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE SOUTH OF CWA. WITH
THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS.
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE FWC NUMBERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY.  MRF AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS TO YESTERDAYS
RESPECTIVE RUNS AND ARE ALSO LOOKING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS RUN OF
THE AVN.  THE UPPER LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF WEST OF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THE MRF SHOWS THIS LOW GETTING CAUGHT BACK UP
IN THE UPPER FLOW AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS SOLUTION IS STILL OPPOSED TO THE MRF ENSEMBLES OF
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND BRINGING OUT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

INCLINED TO MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY.  THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD A
LITTLE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN
SHIFT BACK WESTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK.  AFTER THE VORT MAX THAT IS
OVER KANSAS TODAY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, THINK THAT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE WEEK
AND PLAN ON REMOVING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THAT TIME PERIOD.  WILL KEEP CHANCES GOING FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO DROP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 063/092 064/092 062 200
GCK 062/091 063/091 061 200
EHA 061/092 062/092 060 100
LBL 062/091 063/092 063 200
HYS 061/092 063/092 059 200
P28 064/089 064/091 065 320

.DDC...NONE.

RCM/MLG