Severe Thunderstorm Warning 297, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND TEMPS.

12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWING ELONGATED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF FROM
NORTHERN FRONT RANGE SOUTH INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST. MID TO LOWER
LAYERS REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH MID TEEN CELSIUS
DEWPOINTS AT 850MB. NO REAL INDICATION OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE MOST DEFINITELY PRESENT. 18Z
SURFACE CHART PUTS SURFACE TROFS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ANOTHER OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OF GREAT
INTEREST IS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP PUTTING A WELL DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMA OVER WEST TEXAS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WITH
MORE CONVECTION FIRING OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO WITH THIS WAVE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE NOW MOVING OVERHEAD APPEARS TO BE KEEPING A LID ON
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TAKING PLACE OVER CO/KS BORDER UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE WELL HANDLED BY THE 12Z MODELS. 18Z ETA
SEEMS A BIT LOW ON PRECIP HERE TOO. AM CONCERNED THAT THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN MCS TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE
AROUND IT KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND KANSAS IN CHECK THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE ROCKIES WAVE AND JET DYNAMICS CAN GET THINGS
GOING, BEST PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN 2/3 ZONES BUT AM
RELUCTANT TO GO TOO HIGH ON POPS ANYWHERE WITH ALL THE FEATURES IN
PLAY. WITH LOWEST POPS IN THE NORTH AND HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK ALREADY
COVERING THE SCENARIO, WILL KEEP ZONES FREE OF ANY FLASH FLOOD
HEADLINES BUT MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE ZONES.

FOR LATER PERIODS, SHOULD SEE MCS EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING BUT
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS GOING IN THE EASTERN ZONES. JUST HOW MUCH
RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS REMAINS WILL LIKELY PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN HIGH TEMPS. WILL PLAY FOR PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN AND
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S CWA WIDE. UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOTS OF SUN AND CONTINUED WARMING
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

ATMOSPHERE STILL EXPECTED TO BEHAVE AS ADVERTISED BY LAST FEW
SHIFTS.  UPPER RIDGE SHOULD QUICKLY BUILD WITH THE CENTER SETTLING
IN SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST.  WHAT HAS ME CONCERNED THIS SHIFT THE
WAY THE MODELS ADVERTISE HOW QUICKLY WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHERLY
TROPICAL FLOW.  THE LATEST AVN RUN SUGGESTS THAT 70H DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE TO AROUND 8C BY LATE MONDAY.  A LOOK AT THE MORNING UA AND
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS DO INDICATE A QUITE MOIST ATMOSPHERE
MOVING WEST. ALSO, THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SORT OF S/WV TROF OVER
SOUTHEAST TX MOVING WEST.  THERE ARE PROBABLY MORE IN THE EASTERLIES
ACROSS THE GULF.  QUESTION IS WHEN/IF/HOW THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
TURN NORTH.  WILL THEY BE TOO FAR WEST TO AFFECT THE CWA?  ALSO,
WILL THE BUILDING RIDGE BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT TSTORMS?  MID LVL TEMPS
DON'T GET TOO WARM, AT LEAST FROM A MODEL PERSPECTIVE.  WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DAYS OF CONVECTION IN THE CWA NEXT WEEK
(AFTER MONDAY) BUT SINCE IT WOULD BE FRIVOLOUS TO GUESS WHERE ANY
DISTURBANCE WOULD BE, I WON'T ATTEMPT TO FCST AT THIS TIME.  AS A
COMPROMISE, WILL KEEP THE PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING (MAINLY DAYTIME) AND
LOWER TEMPS JUST A WEE BIT.  I DON'T EXPECT THE REALLY HOT TEMPS
EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK AND EARLIER THIS WEEK.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 069/094 068/096 070 620
~GCK 067/094 067/096 068 6-0
EHA 068/098 068/098 068 600
LBL 069/097 068/098 070 6-0
HYS 067/092 068/095 069 420
P28 072/095 073/098 074 620

.DDC...NONE.

POAGE/HUTTON