Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2001

12Z 5H LVL SHOWING 40-60M HT FALLS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A WEAK UPPER HIGH OVER TX AND MAINLY A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
KS. W/V AND 5H ANALYSIS ALSO STILL SHOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
UPSTREAM, ONE OF WHICH (VIA W/V LOOP) CROSSING THE COLORADO ROCKIES
AT THIS TIME. THIS ONCE AGAIN IS AIDING IN STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AS OF 2 PM. 85H LVL THIS MORNING SHOWING
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE PANHANDLE OF TX WITH
SOME WAA OVER THE FAR SW CWA. SBCAPES HERE APPEAR TO BE CLIMBING
INTO THE 2000-300J/KG IN THIS AREA AND WITH AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING
IN THIS REGION COULD SEE A FEW TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR EHA AND
LBL. FURTHER WEST W/V LOOP SHOWING S/W TROF LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWEST
OF OUR AREA EARLY TONIGHT, BUT GIVEN THE FLOW AND A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWA A FEW TSRA COULD CROSS THIS AREA AS WELL
BEFORE DISSIPATING. ELSEWHERE A FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW OR
DEPENDING ON CU DEVELOPMENT AT ISSUANCE TIME MAY GO WITH SOME LESS
THAN 20 POPS.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS
AND ENTERS THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER CO/NM
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. 85H THERMAL RIDGE AND LEE SFC TROF WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER PARTS OF CWA BOTH DAYS. THIS MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME
FOCUSING AT THE SURFACE FOR LATE DAY STORM WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
WAVE, HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE WARM
AND DRY. THEREFORE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK WELL INTO THE 90S WITH
EVEN A FEW 100S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

OVER TIME, MODELS TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING UPPER RIDGE BACK WEST AND
REBUILD STRONG CAP.  MAY BE CHANGING BACK TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF TSRA
FOR NORTHERN PLAINS AS WAS THE CASE IN RECENT WEEKS WITH CWA DRY.
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND REMOVE TSRA CHANCES FOR LATER PART OF
FORECAST BASED ON THIS. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
DAY 10.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 068/096 070/098 070 100
GCK 067/097 069/099 069 100
EHA 066/099 066/100 068 200
LBL 067/098 067/099 068 200
HYS 068/095 069/099 069 200
P28 072/097 073/098 093 100

.DDC...NONE.
RB/REITER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY, KS
626 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 PM    3 N  ELKHART              KS   .75 INCH HAIL
07/15/01   MORTON                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0558 PM    JOHNSON CITY              KS   .75 INCH HAIL
07/15/01   STANTON                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

RB