Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
230 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2001

WV SHOWED VORT MAX INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND EXITING WAVE
WHICH WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. ALSO SEEING JET
MAX DIVING INTO THE EASTERN FRONT RANGE AS GOOD UPPER WAVE ENTERS
NORTHERN CONUS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FALLING PRESSURES NORTH OF FRONT
SO EXPECT TO SEE A CONTINUED NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONT THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE NEXT SURGE REACHES AREA LATER
TONIGHT.  RADAR AND SAT PICS SHOWING CONVECTION FIRING ALONG FRONT
RANGE. THINK MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TSRA CHANCE TONIGHT.

NO HUGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTION THIS TIME AROUND. WILL LIKELY
SEE TSRA DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND PLAN ON MENTIONING
SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL GO WITH NEAR 100
POPS. FOR REST OF AREA...WILL KEEP ABOUT CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE GOOD SUBSIDENCE DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING AS NEXT SURGE
OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO REGION DURING THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS FOR MOST OF CWA THURSDAY MORNING AND LEAVE SMALL
POPS FOR SOUTHEAST AS WAVE EXITS. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL GO WITH HIGH AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE.
SFC RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS...GOING FOR LOWS IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST
AREAS.  WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING BACK UP BY FRIDAY...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE WARMING TREND.  850MB TEMP TRENDS POINT TO HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S OR SO. THIS IS CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE
ALONE.

EXTENDED...

DUE TO SHORT TERM CONCERNS THERE WAS NOT MUCH TIME TO EXPEND ON THIS
FORECAST. IN THE DIAGNOSTICS THE OLR HOVMOLLER FROM CDC SHOW NO
CLEAR SIGN OF AN MJO PHASE. GLOBAL AVERAGE ANGULAR MOMENTUM IN THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WESTERLIES REMAINS VERY LOW. THIS SUPPORTS A
RELATIVELY HIGHER AMPLITUDE TO BLOCKY PATTERN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE AND ALL THE MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT THIS WITH DIFFERENCES
MAINLY IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FEATURES IN THE HEMISPHERIC FLOW.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS A PATTERN SUGGESTIVE OF
AN MCS EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL WHERE.
WILL THUS KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THEN THE DEVELOPING WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE
SEEMS A CERTAINTY WITH A PACIFIC SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS AFTER THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR EAST AND
SOUTH WILL THAT UPSTREAM SYSTEM END UP AND THERE ARE MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THAT RESPECT. BY TUESDAY THE MRF HAS
LIFTED THIS WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA WHILE THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE ANCHORED IT AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
WHILE THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS PREFERRED,
THE MRF DOES LOOK TOO FAST WITH THIS FEATURE. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION
OF DIGGING THIS SYSTEM AS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS
DISCOUNTED AS IMPROBABLE. FOR NOW WILL GUESS SOME SORT OF POLAR
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN A DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AFTER IT PASSES. WILL PLAY THIS TO AVERAGE OUT AS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 057/079 055/083 058 810
GCK 055/080 054/085 058 910
EHA 057/081 056/086 058 +00
LBL 058/080 056/088 058 +00
HYS 056/077 056/083 059 610
P28 061/083 058/087 062 830

.DDC...NONE

REITER/JOHNSON