Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
241 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2001

FRONT JUST NORTH OF P28 AT 18Z AND APPEARED TO HAVE FINALLY STALLED.
12Z ANALYSIS HAD JET MAX OVER DAKOTAS AND MN WITH WEAKER 50KT JET
OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WYOMING ROCKIES.

MOST OF NORMAL MODEL DATA MISSING TODAY DUE TO BACKUP TEST AT NCEP
SO WAS NOT ABLE TO DO QUITE THE SAME LEVEL OF DIAGNOSIS AS USUAL.

700-500MB DELTA T'S AROUND 20 AT 12Z AND MODELS SHOWING ABOUT THIS
MUCH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PROFILERS AND
MODEL DATA SHOW WAA OVER FRONT ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THUS, KEEPING INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH LIKELY CHANCES OF TSRA WITH A MENTION OF
SEVERE FOR P28...CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND LOWS FROM 55 TO 60.  WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ELEVATED TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE.  THEN GO
WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 WITH UPPER 70S FOR SOUTHEAST AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S.  THIS IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN GOING FORECAST.
SHOULD GET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR THURSDAY MORNING AS WV LOOP
SHOWING LOBE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE MM5 AND 06Z AVN SHOWED THIS PRETTY WELL. WILL
PROBABLY GO WITH LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF AREA AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS
GOING FOR ALL OF CWA.

EXTENDED...

IN THE DIAGNOSTICS, THE MOST ROBUST SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE THE OLR
HOVMOLLERS FROM CDC WHICH SHOW A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD A MOIST
PHASE OF THE MJO WITH THE CONTINUED PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM THE INDIAN OCEAN EASTWARD THROUGH
MALAYSIA. GLOBAL AVERAGE ANGULAR MOMENTUM IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
WESTERLIES REMAINS VERY LOW. THIS ALL APPEARS TO SUPPORT WARM AIR
AND HIGHER HEIGHTS CONTINUING FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
AMERICA WHICH HAS BEEN THE BASIC TREND FOR SOME TIME.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TODAY APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH TIME. A DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AT H5 ARGUES FOR
AN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MCS TYPE PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THOUGH THE ECMWF TRIES TO MAINTAIN AN UPPER
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ON MONDAY WHILE THE MRF OPTS TO PROGRESS A
SERIES OF WAVES OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
WHICHEVER EVENTUALITY IS CORRECT, THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS REMAINS
UNDER A HUGE DOMINATE UPPER HIGH WITH DRY AND HOT WEATHER MOST
LIKELY.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT
AND WARM TEMPERATURES NICELY IN ACCORD WITH THE ABOVE REASONING. AM
NOW GRATIFIED TO SEE THAT NCEP FOLLOWS THE SAME REASONING.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 057/072 055/072 059 767
GCK 055/073 054/071 058 767
EHA 058/074 054/073 058 7^77
LBL 058/074 054/073 058 777
HYS 057/073 055/071 058 644
P28 062/077 060/075 062 777

.DDC...NONE

REITER/JOHNSON