Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW PERIODS
AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

A CHANGE TOWARD COOLER WEATHER IS HEADED FOR THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWED THE STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW AT THE H5 LEVEL CONTINUING TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS.  THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
WAS MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM HAD HELPED
PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AT
06Z. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ATTM.  MSL PRESSURES WERE FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND THEN WITH THE
FRONT CRASHING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING
ON HOW THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW AFFECTS ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. FRONT
COULD BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY IF
IT GETS ENOUGH OF A PUSH.  DONT FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY THE
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
BETTER UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE HEADED TOWARD THE AREA LATER ON
THURSDAY.  THINK WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TSRA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WILL WORD ZONES ACCORDINGLY.

MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A TREND TO LOWER THURSDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH EACH SUCCEEDING RUN.   H85 TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPS AROUND 13C TO 14C OVER MONTANA WITH COOLER TEMPS
FARTHER WEST.  WILL BACK OFF THURSDAYS HIGHS A CATEGORY AND GO
AROUND 75 TO 80.  MAY BE EVEN COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH STRATUS
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING AS VORT
MAX WORKS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE LOOKS PLENTIFUL ENOUGH
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BUMP UP
POPS HERE. FRONT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD SURGE FRIDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. AM NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES
HERE AND WILL TREND POPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 089/060 077/050 079 012
GCK 090/058 076/048 077 012
EHA 091/058 075/049 075 012
LBL 091/059 078/050 078 012
HYS 090/061 075/048 081 012
P28 090/064 081/054 081 002

.DDC...NONE.

GERARD/POAGE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-170500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
219 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2001

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IT WILL
ENCOUNTER A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXTEND ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ENCOUNTERS THIS BOUNDARY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM JOHNSON CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO DIGHTON LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THIS AREA A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU CAN CHECK OUT OUR WEBSITE AT:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/

RB