Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2001

...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THEN DRYING...

THE COLD FRONT IS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE REGION AND
TRIGGERING CONVECTION.   THE THETA FRONT IS ACTUALLY JUST BEHIND THE
LINE OF CLOUDS IN INDIANA TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WHILE THE THETA-E
FRONT IS IN NW PENNSYLVANIA EXTENDING INTO OHIO.  WE WILL GET COOL
FROM THE FORMER AND THE RAIN WILL COME WITH THE LATTER.

THE MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE ABOUT 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THIS IMPLIES WE COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS UNDER ANY INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM.  SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.  WIND PROFILES DO NOT RULE OUT A FEW HP
SUPERCELLS.

SREF DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THREAT OF 0.25 AND GREATER RAINFALL OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...BY 6 AM
SATURDAY ALL QPF IS TO OUR EAST.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM STATE
COLLEGE WEST MUCH AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT.  THE BEST PERIOD FOR RAIN IS
BETWEEN NOW AND AND 4 AM SATURDAY. IN WESTERN SECTIONS THE RAIN
WILL END EARLIER. THE SREF POPS FOR 0.10 SUGGEST NO ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL WILL FALL AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.  BY SUNRISE ALL THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER.

MODELS ALL SHOW QUICK AND STRONG DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY.
A CRISP LATE SUMMER AIR MASS WILL MARCH ACROSS PA. SHOULD BE ONE
NICE AFTERNOON SATURDAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. CRISP NIGHT FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  SOME COLDER VALLEYS WILL DIP
BELOW 40 AND INTO THE MID 30S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.

...EXTENDED...

AFTER A TASTE OF AUTUMN THIS WEEKEND...SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL
SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEK.  MONDAY STARTS OUT WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPS BUT BY TUESDAY WE REBOUND TO
NEAR NORMAL. INITIALLY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP US DRY AND
PLEASANT. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLES SHOW A RIDGE...ABOUT +1.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. THIS WOULD
LEND IT SELF TO AN INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY AND DAILY TEMPS OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WITH 850 TEMPS AND THICKNESS VALUES NEAR
NORMAL WOULD EXPECT TO SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINS.  THE
LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE WEAK SUGGESTING UNLESS THERE
IS A BIG CHANGE...IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY DRY WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.  OUR ONLY HOPE FOR RAIN WOULD BE IF WE GET SOME NOCTURNAL
ACTIVE CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE ONCE IT GETS ESTABLISHED
BY MID WEEK.

.CTP...NONE.

GRUMM/LACORTE

PAZ012-041-045-046-311645-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2001

...LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS TO AFFECT THE AREA...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF LOCK HAVEN TO JERSEY
SHORE...WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. THE STORMS WILL
BE IN THE WILLIAMSPORT AREA BETWEEN 11 AND 1130 AM. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. A SPOTTER IN
SOUTHERN CLINTON COUNTY REPORTED 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN
ONE HOUR AS THE STORM MOVED THROUGH.

LA CORTE

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-312345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1246 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2001

.....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO
CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

LA CORTE