Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
250 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2001

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WARM SECTOR OVER SW PA IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...KAGC REPORTED A GUST
TO 36 KTS AS THEY PASSED AT 1646Z.  WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH
NOWCASTS.

SHORT TERM MODELS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH NEW RUNS...ALTHOUGH EACH
JUST A BIT STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN THE DRY SLOT
ENCROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MARKING THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS THE REGION WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT.  WITH STRONG 850/500MB
CORRELATED JETS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE MAINLY THIS EVENING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.  WILL MENTION THIS IN THE ZONES.

BY SUNRISE...PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE WEST...WHILE A CHANCE
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE EAST.  SPC CONTINUES
A SLIGHT RISK JUST EAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW...AND BELIEVE THIS LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD AS PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST BEFORE THE BEST HEATING KICKS
IN.

IN THE EXTENDED...NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES AHEAD OF A TROUGH
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER PLAINS.  THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH.  AFTER THAT...A RUN OF DRY DAYS AND SEASONAL
WEATHER.

.CTP...NONE.

RXR

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-045-046-049-050-
056-162100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2001

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THIS EVENING. STRONG...GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE
STORMS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED STRONG...GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THOSE STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHWEST OF ALTOONA AND STATE
COLLEGE.

A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS IN
THIS LINE COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS...
IN PLACES LIKE BRADFORD AND DUBOIS.  THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST TOWARD STATE COLLEGE AND ALTOONA.

KEEP TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
INFORMATION THIS AFTERNOON ON EITHER NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL
RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TODAY OR
THIS EVENING.

ROGOWSKI/DEVOIR

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP