Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
255 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2001

DISCUSSION...WEAK SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WITH
TEMP OF 79 AT COT AND 95 AT LRD AND 100 AT ALI.  CONFUSED WIND FIELD
WITH NELY GRADIENT BEHIND THE BNDRY AND SE FLOW AHEAD.  EXPECT
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WILL FCST ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING BEFORE INSOLATION AND LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AREAWIDE
TO FORCE CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE.  DUE TO MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON..EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN FA TMRW WITH HEATING/SEABREEZE
INTERACTION.  OTHERWISE..A DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.  FUTURE TRACK
OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST.

AVN GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE FAVORED WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE YUCATAN MON EVE AND BACK OVER WATER BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
TUE AND CONTINUING TO THE NW AS THE NEXT PAC SHORTWAVE BUCKLES THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER THE NRN GULF COAST.  REGARDLESS OF
THE EXACT TRACK OF CHANTAL..THE EXTENDED WILL ADVERTISE THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS HIGH PWAT AIR ROTATES TOWARD THE CWA THU-SUN.  ONCE
CHANTAL CROSS THE YUCATAN AND ITS INTEGRITY IS ANALYZED..A MORE
SOLID COURSE OF MOTION WILL BE BEST DETERMINED..AS THE RIDGE WILL
HAVE SHOWN BETTER SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING EWD.  HOW FAR
NORTH THE RIDGE DISPLACES WILL DETERMINE THE PATH FOR CHANTAL..AS
THE TIMING OF THE ERN TROF WILL APPEAR TO NOT AFFECT THE SYSTEM AS
IT SLOWS DOWN BEFORE NEARING THE YUCATAN AND STRENGTHENS DUE TO HIGH
SST AND VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT..ALLOWING A BETTER ALIGNMENT OF
CONVECTION OVR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

MARINE...MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED PRESS RISES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND PRESS FALLS OVER W CWA. THUS...WILL CONT
SCEC OVER THE BAYS TONIGHT.  AS THE BOUNDARY LOSES ITS
CHARACTERISTICS OVER NIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX. A MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONT THROUGH TUE...WITH LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP EXPECTED. EXTENDED A BIT TRICKY WITH UNCERTAINTY OF CHANTALS
TRACK. WILL CONT WITH CURRENT THINKING BY MENTIONING CHANTAL IN
SYNOPSIS AND HAVING SEAS BLD AND PRECIP INCREASE BY MID TO LATTER IN
THE WEEK AS CHANTAL MOVES INTO THE GULF.  THANKS KHGX FOR COORD CALL.

THE FORECAST NUMBERS ARE NEXT...

CRP BB 075/095 076/096 076 76-2-
VCT BB 075/096 075/097 076 76-2-
LRD BB 077/100 077/101 078 76--0

.CRP...NONE.