Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
230 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2001

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND TO MCMULLEN COUNTIES THIS IS AFTERNOON.
WITH AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
CLEAR. AS THE CLOUDS BREAK UP...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE THE
NEEDED FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THE MID LEVEL LOW/VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN THE MODELS SHOW AN
EXPANSION IN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE
CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST.

FOR MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS WILL STILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE. THE PLUS AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE. PWATS WILL DROP TO AROUND
1.5 ON MONDAY PER THE ETA. THE AVN KEEPS HIGHER PWATS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH SHOW AN INCREASE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW SHOULD IDEALLY PLACE
SOUTH TEXAS IN DRIER AIR...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AS WELL AS
SPOKES OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE MRF BRINGS
THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...AFTERNOON WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TUE WITH
THE COMBINED AFFECTS OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...DEEPENING LOW
PRESS TO THE WEST AND STRENGTHENING LLJ. BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TUE...THEN GRADIENT RELAXES SOME BY THUR. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...MODELS DEV A WEAK COASTAL TROF AND 925MB WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS...RESULTING IN  LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
ISOLATED SHRAS.

PRELIM NUMS
CRP BB 072/092 073/093 074 1--
VCT BB 072/093 073/094 074 111
LRD BB 075/098 075/099 076 ---

.CRP...NONE.