Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
225 AM CDT MON APR 23 2001

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DIFFUSE TROF LOCATED ACROSS THE
WRN CWA AND EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF THE FA.  COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
S OF AUS ATTM AND EXTENDS NEWD TO BETWEEN GGG/LFK.  THREAT OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING FOR THE CRP CWA AS THE
AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE EXISTS TOWARD THE NERN
PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY..ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT ADVANCES S.  AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH AND MERGES WITH THE DIFFUSE TROF AXIS..EXPECT ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT/DEVELOPMENT TO THE PRESENT CONVECTION.  WILL TAKE A
BLEND BETWEEN THE DRIER NGM AND THE WET AVN AS BOTH APPEAR TO LEAN
TOWARD THE EXTREME ON EITHER SPECTRUM.

OMEGA FIELDS ARE GREATEST DURING THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WHEN THE
FRONT WILL HAVE GREATEST IMPACT ON THE REGION...EARLIER ACROSS THE
WRN CWA WHERE TROF AND FRONT WILL MERGE EARLIEST.  PRESSURE FALLS
HAVE LESSENED TO THE NORTH AS AFTN HTG HAS LESSENED THE PRESSURE
CONTRAST..HOWEVER FEEL A BRIEF INCREASE IN WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE ESCARPMENT.  CLOUDINESS WITH
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLY TUE AS LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL EXIST..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST.
HOWEVER..A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR LATE AND
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.  CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WED/THU WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RETURNING FOR FRI-MON.

MARINE...GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AS A PREFRONTAL TROF HAS MOVED INTO S
TX. SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN CLOSE TO 7 FEET...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN SCA. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED PRESS BLDING OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY. FEEL THAT ONCE THE FRONT GETS MOVG S...A BRIEF IMPULSE OF
AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH AT LEAST BORDERLINE SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND TOWARD TUE MORN BEHIND THE CF. THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AND SCAS EXPECTED TO BE DROPPED WITH THE
MORNING CWF ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ACTUAL TIMING
OF CF. GRADIENT RELAXES BY WED AS HIGH PRESS SETTLES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

THE FORECAST NUMBERS ARE NEXT...

CRP EU 062/073 056/078 059 620
VCT EU 059/073 051/077 056 610
LRD EU 061/072 058/082 060 630

BML.76 / TME.81

.CRP...SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275.

TXZ229>234-239>247-240500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
715 PM CDT MON APR 23 2001

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM COTULLA TO
COLLEGE STATION...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT STRETCHING FROM LAREDO TO
VICTORIA. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD MEASURE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MAINLY
EAST OF A CORPUS CHRISTI TO CHOKE CANYON LINE. AS THE COLD FRONT
PLUNGES INTO A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.

RESIDENTS IN THE COASTAL BEND...RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER TONIGHT...
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IS A WARNING IS ISSUED IN
YOUR AREA.  YOU CAN ALSO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP