Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
244 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

SHORT-TERM...12Z CRP SOUNDING SUGGESTED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL AND WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THIS
MAY BE REALIZED IN DEEPER CONVECTION WITH MACRO-MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS.  AVN POSITION OF THE CLOSED 500HPA CYCLONE(REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON) BEST AT 18Z. WILL FOLLOW THE AVN
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS BETTER TRACK RECORD DURING THE TROPICAL SEASON.
HEAVY RAIN CHECKLIST REVEALS MANY PARAMETERS ARE MODERATELY/STRONGLY
FAVORABLE. INITIAL THINKING IS BASIN AVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. WE ARE
BEING CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF ATTM UNTIL SITUATION EVOLVES BUT ARE
QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT A DANGEROUS SITUATION MATERIALIZING. THE
500HPA CLOSED CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH HIGH PWAT AIR AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC
WINDS. APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
EASTERN CWA MOST VULNERABLE DUE TO POSITION OF SURFACE TROUGH. A
SHARP POP/QPF GRADIENT WILL EXIST FROM WEST TO EAST. GENERALLY
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS NORTHEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST. FWC/MAV
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REASONABLE GIVEN CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION.

LONG-TERM...AVN/MRF/NOGAPS AGREE THAT HIGH PWATS PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS OF 500HPA CLOSED CIRCULATION
SUNDAY THEN A MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THERAFTER.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SERVE AS AN INHIBITION BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH ATTM.

MARINE...WETTER PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
FCST PERIOD.  THE REMNANTS OF TS ALLISON CONT TO DRIFT SLOWLY SW
THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS CONT TO INDICATE THIS TREND TO PREVAIL
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THIS WILL SPELL INCREASING CONVECTION
MAINLY FRI NIGHT THRU SUN.  WINDS WILL CONT TO BE ALL OVER THE
COMPASS..WITH SPEEDS REMAINING LIGHT.  NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR ADVISORIES
ATTM.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
CRP ET 076/089 075/087 074 85246
VCT TT 075/086 073/085 072 85568
LRD EE 075/094 074/089 073 85122

.CRP...NONE.

85/BB
73/ML
71/DW

TXZ229-239>242-080200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT-WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
420 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM.
THE WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...LASALLE...WEBB...DUVAL...
JIM WELLS...KLEBERG.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT
SEVERE WEATHER IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE AREA COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT...KEEP INFORMED AND BE PREPARED TO
SEEK SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER IS SPOTTED OR A WARNING IS
ISSUED.  MARINERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO
MOVE INTO PORT.  STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION INCLUDING POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAMARRE

TXZ232>234-242>247-080930-

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
430 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND...

THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALLISON MOVING SOUTHWEST...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE.
THE DRY CONDITIONS THAT HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL MONTHS WILL HELP INITIALLY TO AVOID FLOODING PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...AS THE RAINFALL CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WILL INCREASE.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER THE VICTORIA AND
CORPUS CHRISTI AREAS.  LOCATIONS WELL INLAND AND OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS WILL SEE RAINFALL...BUT LESS LIKELY TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FROM FLOODING.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GENERAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES OR GREATER POSSIBLE.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...SO ALL
INTEREST IN THE THREAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST FOR UPDATES AND STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST WATCHES OR
WARNING THAT MAY BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

REMEMBER TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR
IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.
RESIDENTS ALONG CREEKS...RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD ALSO LISTEN FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION AND BE READY TO SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF RAPID RISES OCCUR NEAR YOUR LOCATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

MSL