Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
245 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2001

DISCUSSION...MOIST AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FORECAST CYCLE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE LATER IN THE PERIODS OF
THE EXTENDED.  AVN/ETA DATA APPEARS TO HAVE HANDLED THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION QUIET WELL..AND IT APPEARS TO
BE DOING WELL WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT.  WATER VAPOR DATA
ILLUSTRATES AN UPCOMING SHORTWAVE FARTHER UPSTREAM..OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION..AND THIS WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER
TONIGHT.

AS A RESULT..WILL POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA..AS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PASS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALL STORMS ARE GENERATING RAFL TOTALS IN EXCESS
OF FLOOD GUIDANCE..AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT CURRENT
CONVECTION TO BULGE/DEVELOP SWD THIS MORNING AND FLOOD THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWA AS THE VORT DIGS A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.  A BRIEF
BREAK WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS MCS LATE THIS MORNING
(WEST) AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (EAST)...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND IS
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL PUSH EWD TONIGHT
ONCE AGAIN.

ON WED...A BREAK IN THE ACTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP AS THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AND BRINGS IN NVA..HOWEVER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
SPARK LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING
SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA.  FOR NOW..WILL POST THE FFA THROUGH WED
NIGHT..WHICH IS IN PHASE WITH THE POSTED RIVER FLOOD WATCH ACROSS
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA COUNTIES.

MARINE...INITIAL 500HPA SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL FORCING
COMES LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE TROUGH/850HPA
FRONT/JET DYNAMICS W/N OF WATERS...ANTICIPATE ONLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION BAYS/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET/MCS INFLOW WILL BRING BORDERLINE
SCEC OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST NUMBERS ARE NEXT...

CRP TT 090/076 091/075 092 6565
VCT TT 090/075 091/074 092 7676
LRD ET 095/077 093/075 097 5555

BML.76 / BB.85

.CRP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL CWA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
       RIVER FLOOD WATCH TXZ229>234-243>247 THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TXZ229>234-239>247-041015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
918 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2001

...MORE HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEK...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...AS WELL AS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU MONDAY EVENING.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.   RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE STRONGER STORMS.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE OVER LASALLE...
MCMULLEN...LIVE OAK...AND POSSIBLY BEE COUNTY.

ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL IN MORE GULF MOISTURE WHICH COULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THE GROUND IS SATURATED OVER MOST
OF THE COASTAL BEND AND CROSSROADS AREA...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. AREA RIVERS
COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE ANOTHER FLOOD BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

A RIVER FLOOD WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS...AS MANY RIVERS STILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS.

SINCE THE EXACT LOCATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE WEATHER AND LATEST
FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
EVENT...STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION. YOU CAN ALSO CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

GW