Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
732 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2001

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AT
THIS TIME. SENDING AN UPDATE TO HOIST TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN OHIO AND OHIO PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. NORTHWEST PA WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE WATCH BUT POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS IN THIS AREA FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

LOMBARDY

220 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2001

LATEST MDL RUNS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON GROSS FEATURES...UPR
LVLS AND SFC. CLOSED UPR LOW OVR DAKOTAS DEEPENS AS IT MOVES E...
OVR ERN LSUP BY MDDAY THU THEN OVR XTRM SW QUE AT 48 HRS. SFC LOW MN
EJECTED TO NE BUT APPEARS TO BE CAPTURED BY UPR LOW AND SPENDS SOME
TIME SPINNING OVER SE ONT. RSNBLY HI THREAT FOR SHWRS/TSTMS OVRNGT
SO WL PRBBLY BE GOING WITH CAT FCST MOST AREAS. NGM GUID WANTS TO
KEEP POPS AT CHC LVL ACRS THE BRD...BUT FEEL THIS MAY BE A BIT OVRDN
DESPITE STG CAA. LE NOT LIKELY TO KICK IN DURG DAY WITH WINDS MORE
OR LESS PARALLEL TO SHORELINE THRU 00Z. WUD HV TO DEPEND ON SYN
SCALE FEATURE AND AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH WHAT PROGS PORTRAYING. MAY
LV A LOW CHC POP FOR AM SHWRS E END OF CWA BUT NOTHING ELSE. CONDS
STARTING TO LINE UP FOR A PRETTY GOOD LE EVENT THU NGT AND FRI. CD
AIR WL BE IN PLACE WITH LW LVL WNDS SHFTG ARND TO NW. ETA SHOWING
SOME SGFNT UVV OVR E END OF CWA. WL GO WITH A CHC SHRA/SN WRN HLF
THU NGT AND FRI AND LKLY E.

CO-ORDINATED WITH NRN IN ON POTENTIAL FOR HI WND WARNING FOR THU AND
THU NGT. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WILL GO WITH WINDY ATTM.

MOS TMPS DONT LOOK TOO BAD WITH LTL IF ANY RISE XPCTD FOR THU. TMPS
ABT THE SAME FOR FRI...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS E.

VRCEK

.CLE...
OH...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY.
PA...NONE.