Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
225 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2001

UPR RDG WILL CONT TO RETROGRADE TO BE JUST SE OF FOUR CORNERS
AREA INTO SUN THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK TO THE NE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. ERN TROF REMAINS FROM N.E. DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD INTO SUN.
ERN EDGE OF VORT MAX SLIDING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST IN PERSISTENT NW
FLO TONIGHT AND WILL AFFECT AREA THRU FRI. AT THE SFC...SAGGING COLD
FRONT AND MEANDERING LOW WILL LINGER ACRS THE CWA THRU MUCH OF FRI
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT
DEEP MSTR BEGINS TO BE REPLACED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT FRI
INTO SAT. UNTIL THEN...WILL HAVE A MIX TONIGHT OF NGM TEMPS AND MAV
POPS AND VARIABLE WIND ACRS NRN COUNTIES. WILL BE CLOSE TO AVN
NUMBERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. PLAN A DRY FCST FROM EARLY SAT ALL THE WAY
THRU MON AND THEN BRING BACK PCPN MAINLY AFTN/EVE FOR TUE/WED/THU.
EXPCT AFTN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80 SAT AND SUN AND THEN CLIMBING
AGAIN ABV 90 DEGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. NEXT FRONT
WILL PROBABLY STALL N OF THE AREA NEXT THU.

CWF...VAR WIND ACRS NRN WATERS...SW FOR THE S THRU MUCH OF FRI. ALL
MARINE ZONES WILL SHIFT TO NE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. PLAN NO FLAGS.

FCSTID = 25
CHS   76  87  71  87 /  40  50  20  10
SAV   75  89  70  88 /  40  50  30  10
CHL   81  85  76  86 /  40  50  20  10
NBC   77  88  71  88 /  40  50  20  10
RBW   72  87  70  89 /  40  50  20  10

.CHS...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MJR/SLB

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>050-130500-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
115 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2001

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL INTERACT
WITH OTHER LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA TO LIFT THE EXISTING HOT
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION...CREATING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE RELATIVELY LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR HAIL REACHING THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES...COMBINED WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS...WILL ENHANCE THE POSSIBILTY OF SOME AREAS RECEIVING
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND SMALL HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WE]ATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/LWX

SLB