Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
240 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2001

AREA OF SHRA WITH A LITTLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVG THRU THE NRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA. ONCE THIS GOES THRU...DONT EXPECT ANY MORE PCPN ACROSS THE
N...BUT WILL CARRY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS THIS EVE UNTIL DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ARRIVE. FURTHER S ACROSS THE GA ZONES...SKIES ARE P/CLOUDY WITH
TEMPS AOA 80. CONVECTION IS HAVING A TUFF TIME FIRING UP. BLV ANY
SVR THREAT IS VERY MINIMAL FROM HERE ON OUT. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION ON THIS PKG. WILL CARRY CHC POPS ACROSS GA FOR SHRA/TSRA
THRU THE EVE AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING ALG THE GA COAST. GUID TEMPS
LOOK PRETTY GOOD. WILL LEAN TWD WARMER MAV AS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A
WHILE AND WINDS SHUD NOT DECOUPLE.

MON SHUD BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH PLENTY OF S/S AND MUCH LOWER RH. A
REFRESHING NWLY BREEZE AT 10-20 MPH. WILL LEAN TWD WARMER FWC TEMPS
WITH S/S AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

STRONG S/WV WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA ON TUE. ATTM...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED ESP ACROSS THE S. WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC SHRA IN FOR THE SC
ZONES. WILL GO M/SUNNY FOR GA. AS S/WV MOVES OFF THE COAST IN THE
AFTN...STRONG MIXING WILL OCCUR. WILL BUMP WINDS UP TO BREEZY FOR
NOW. WILL AGAIN LEAN TWD WARMER FWC TEMPS WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND S/S. THE REAL CAA WONT SET IN TIL AFTN/EVE. HIGHS SHUD BE
ATTAINED BY EARLY AFTN.

MUCH COOLER TUE NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES SETTLES
IN. WILL FCST LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT A LITTLE ABV GUID AS PG REMAINS
QUITE STRONG. THE COLDEST NIGHT SHUD BE WED NIGHT WHEN WINDS DROP
OFF AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS. WILL FCST LOW TO MID 30S
INLAND WITH A GOOD CHC FOR FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE WELL INLAND.
BLV TEMPS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL REMAIN AOA 40 DEG THRU THE
WEEK.

NEXT SYS TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL CARRY
A SLGT CHC SHRA FOR SAT/SUN AS TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL.

CWF...WINDS REALLY NEVER GOT GOING TDY AS PG REMAINS SLACK IN VCNTY
OF WK WRMFNT. PG WL INCRS TNT AS LOW PRES OVR OH VLY HEADS TWDS
DELMARVA AND DEEPENS. SHUD REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SC
WATERS...WI EVEN LESSER CONDS FOR GA WATERS. AS CDFNT MOVES ACRS
CSTL WATERS EARLY MON WINDS SHUD PICK UP SOME AS CAA STARTS...BUT
CAA LEVELS OUT BY LATE AFTN AND PG SLACKENS AGAIN BY EARLY MON NGT.
THIS ALL TO CHANGE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS ACRS WATERS TUE AFTN...AND
H8 TEMPS IN VCNTY OF -3 TO -5C MOVE INTO WATERS...DRAGGING DOWN
NEARLY ALL WINDS FROM H8. THS SURGE SHUD RESULT IN STG SCA
CONDS...POSSIBLY APPRCHNG GALE FORCE FOR SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS...BUT WL LV JST BLO FOR NOW. PCPN WL COME TO AN END TNT...WI
ANTHR CHC FOR WATERS AS ARCTIC BNDRY MOVS THRU TUE. THNX FOR COORD
ILM.

FCSTID = 20
CHS   58  78  51  70 /  30   0   0  20
SAV   57  80  48  71 /  30   0   0  10
CHL   61  79  55  71 /  30   0   0  20
NBC   58  79  50  70 /  30   0   0  20
RBW   54  77  49  69 /  20   0   5  20

.CHS...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

TJR/WOODWORTH