Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
250 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2001

FEW SWRS STUBBORNLY REDEVELOPING ACRS ERN ZNS...MNLY JUST INLAND FM
CST....BUT TENDING TO MOV NERD AS FNT APPROACHES. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...CFNT APPEARS TO BE IN WRN KY/NRN AR AND SLOLY MOVG SERD.
ALSO APPEARS TO BE A PREFNTL TROF INTO CNTRL TN/NRN MS. MAIN AREA OF
SWRS MOVG ACRS MIDLANDS INTO CNTRL GA ATTM...BUT APPEARS TO BE
SPLITTING AS ETA SUGGESTED WTH MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVG NERD IN
STRONG LL SW JET.

ETA/AVN APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST THRU ERLY PDS...THEN
SOME DIFFERENCES BEYOND 36 HRS. NGM APPEARS TOO FAST CONSIDERING ALL
MDLS INDICATE UPR FLOW BCMG MORE ZONAL RATHER THAN NW THRU MON/MON
NIGHT. QUESTION TNGT IS ABT HOW FAR FNT WL MOV SRD. ETA HINTS THAT
THE HIGH IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS SUGGESTED IN PREV MDL RUNS...AVN
STILL PUSHES FNT THRU TO CNTRL FL BY MON NIGHT. FEEL THIS IS A BIT
TOO FAR S...ESP CONSIDERING ZONAL UPR FLOW. HWVR...THERE IS GOOD
DRYING ALFT...SO SHWRS SHD END OVRNT TNGT BUT SOME RESIDUAL NR THE
ALTAMAHA RVR ERLY MON MRNG. SKIES SHD CLR OUT FOR LATER MON/MON
NIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR PUNCH WTH THIS HIGH WHICH RMNS N
OF RGN. TEMPS NOT XPCTD TO DROP TOO MCH. LOWS WL RMN SLIGHTLY BLO
CLIMO...BUT HIGHS SHD GO SLIGHTLY ABV. THEN...ANOTHER SYSTEM FORMS
IN ACTIVE SRN STREAM FM SRN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO APPROACH LATE TUE.
AVN SUGGESTS LOW PRES FORMING ON RETURN WFNT WTH GOOD LIFT ASSOCD.
AVN HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WTH THIS DVLPMNT. PLAN ON MENTIONING CHC
POPS TUE NIGHT...THEN LKLY AS LOW TRACKS ACRS CWA WTH GOOD OVRRNG
AND LIFT. APPEARS THAT ZONAL FLOW WL RMN IN PLACE THRU MOST OF
WEEK...WTH NO REAL COLD AIR PUNCHING SRD. XTNDD MDLS SUGGEST NXT
THREAT OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WL BE IN SAT/SUN TIMEFRAME.

FWC/FAN/MAV TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE...THO FEEL THEY MAY BE A LTL TOO COOL
TNGT DEPENDING UPON WHERE FNT ENDS UP. WL GO SLIGHTLY ABV GUID. WL
BE GOING CLOSE TO MAV TEMPS. CONSIDERING AMT OF CLD COVER COMING
UP...ESP TUE/TUE NIGHT...WL STICK CLOSER TO COOLER MAV. AS FOR
POPS...PLAN ON CONTG TREND OF GOING BLO MOS GUID. MOS STILL APPEARS
OVERDONE...ESP CONSIDERING HOW THE BULK OF THE LIFT IS MOVG WELL N
OF RGN. HWVR...WTH SUGGESTED POSN AND MVMNT OF NXT SYS ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...WL STICK RELATIVELY CLOSE TO MAV GUID POPS TUE NIGHT.

CWF...RESIDUAL ELY SWELL STILL HAS SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE
NEARSHORE AND 7-8 FT OFFSHORE...BUT IT IS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. WITH
LLVL JET LIFTING OUT THIS AFTN...WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 15 KT OVER SC
WATERS AND 10-15 KT OVER GA WATERS. PLAN TO KEEP FLAGS UP FOR SC
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS AS SEAS ARE STILL AROUND SCA CRIT.
41008 DOWN TO 5 FT AND BLV WE CAN GET BY WITH SCEC THIS PKG. FLAGS
WL LIKELY COME DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATERS TNGT AS SEAS
SUBSIDE. CD FNT WL ENTER THE NRN WATERS EARLY MON...THE SLIDE S THRU
THE SRN PTN MON AFTN. LOOKS LIKE A MINI NE SURGE MON NIGHT THAT MAY
PUSH FLAGS AGAIN FOR GA PTN AS PG IS STRONGEST TO THE S. WM FNT WL
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK N BY LATE TUE WITH LOW PRES APPCHNG FROM THE W
WED. CUD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA COND WED INTO THU.

FCSTID = 26
CHS   61  71  47  65 /  40   5   0  10
SAV   63  73  46  67 /  50  10   0  10
CHL   62  71  50  64 /  40   5   0  10
NBC   61  72  48  65 /  40   5   0  10
RBW   58  70  44  65 /  50   0   0  10

.CHS...
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ374.
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ350-352.

EVT/TJR