Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
227 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2001

STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
HAS DEVELOPED INTO A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION FROM NORTHERN OHIO TO
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION
BY MIDNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LAYER WILL BE NEARLY
SATURATED TO 20KFT.

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO RESULT IN ONLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ANOTHER STRONGER SERIES OF VORTS WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET OF 60KT+ WILL BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MUCH STRONGER ON TUESDAY AS WELL
WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE MID OR UPPER 60S. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION...LEAVING US IN THE MILDER SECTOR UNTIL THE THIRD
AND SUCCESSIVELY STRONGER SYSTEM ON THURSDAY BRINGS THE BEGINNINGS OF
AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK...POISED TO COVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK CLOSE ON FWC/MAV/FAN FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BUT ILL GO WITH THE MILDER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT  ON FWC GUIDANCE AS
THERE WONT BE MUCH COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT.

.BUF...NONE.

HIBBERT