Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
330 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

.DISCUSSION...LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN FORMED OVER CWA AND SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE BROWNSVILLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE CLOUDY SKIES
AND LT/MDT RAIN IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TONIGHT.

A POTENT 5H UPPER LOW OVER SE NM CONTINUES TO ADVECT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO OPEN AND DRIFT NE ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH MOVES ONTO THE PAC NW AND DEEPENS. SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST
HELPING PUMP MOISTURE INTO SOUTHER PLAINS. ON SUNDAY...UPPER SHORT
WAVE MOVES EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SFC RIDGE NOSES
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS RESULTING IN SOME DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE H5 SHORT WAVE OVER THE PAC NW MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER NW COLORADO.
A SECOND MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE HEADS FOR THE GREAT
LAKES OUT OF CANADA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF IT. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES INTO N TEXAS ON MONDAY...SERVING TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER TEXAS NORTH OF CWA. ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS...H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES...HELPING TO BRING A SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DOWN TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
SURFACE LOW OVER NEW MEXICO PULLS MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS TEXAS WITH
AN ASSOCIATED H5 TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO.

BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER TEXAS
MOVES EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LEAVING A DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 7
FEET...SO SCA WILL GO UP FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
BRO EE 070/083 067/083 065 40/30/30/20/20
HRL EE 069/083 066/083 064 40/30/30/20/20
MFE EE 070/084 067/083 065 20/30/30/20/20
RGC EE 067/086 064/085 064 00/30/30/20/20
SPI EE 073/082 073/081 070 40/30/30/20/20

SYNOPTIC...59
COORDINATION...52
PUBLIC-AVIATION-MARINE...54 & 61

.BRO...SCA GMZ150-155-170-175.