Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
230 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2001

THE REMNANTS OF TS BARRY ARE STILL VISIBLE ON SATELLITE...SPINNING
OVER MEMPHIS.  THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARRY
IS EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OF UPPER HIGH HEIGHTS BLANKETING
THE MAJORITY OF THE REST OF THE NATION.

IN TERMS OF OTHER TROPICAL ACTIVITY...EASTERLY WAVES CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...BUT NONE ARE SHOWING THREATS OF
IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENT.  AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST WAS NOTED IN THE
WIND SURGE AHEAD OF THE WAVE AROUND 40-45W.

AN EXCEPTION TO THE DOMINATE UPPER HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE NATION
WOULD BE AN UPPER WEAKNESS OVER WEST TEXAS WHERE IT IS RELATIVELY
DRY...AND WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS SET UP.  THIS HAS COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO HELP DRAW MOISTURE
UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST AND ALSO INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE MORNING SOUNDING AT BRO SHOWED 2.19 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...SO THE ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE FOR
CONVECTION...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OFFSHORE (SEE THE MARINE SECTION FOR MORE INFO) AND HAVE
PENETRATED INTO FAVORED CONFLUENT PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AND
FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY...NAMELY KENEDY COUNTY.  SOME EARLIER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRIGGERED INLAND CONVECTION THOUGH...AND MAY HAVE
KILLED THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND UPPER HEIGHTS ARE HIGH...BETWEEN 591 AND 594 DM...BUT
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TREND IN THE ZONES TO
DECREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS CONDITIONS START TO DRY
OUT.  THE PWAT TIME SERIES SHOWS VALUES DROPPING HALF AN INCH AT BRO
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.  VALUES INLAND ARE
ALREADY LOWER.  AS A RESULT...A RETURN TO AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
REGIME IS LIKELY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ON DAY 2 AND
THREE...BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE CURRENT RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AND AMPLIFYING.  THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK IS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER AND
DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND
ADJACENT GULF TODAY.  AS THIS TROUGH MOVES FURTHER WEST ON
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM TONIGHT ON.  A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF...WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION.  NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
BRO BB 076/096 076/096 076 10000
HRL BB 075/097 075/097 075 10000
MFE BB 076/100 076/100 076 00000
RGC BB 075/102 075/102 075 00000
SPI BB 077/086 077/087 077 10000

AVIATION-MARINE-VEGA...60.TS/PUBLIC-SYNOPTIC...54.BHM

LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION           WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO
NATIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION        WEATHER.GOV
TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION        WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

.BRO...NONE.