Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1015 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2001

A COUPLE OF TSTM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED THIS MORNING...BUT AIRMASS HAS
STABILIZED AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF TSTMS. WITH INDIVIDUAL STORM
MOVEMENT AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS...FLOODING IS NOT A MAIN CONCERN WITH
INDIVIDUAL STORMS. MOST AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINING MORNING
HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEEP LAYERED SELY FLOW IS INDICATED BY MORNING RAOB UP TO
700 MB WITH SATURATED LAYER FROM SFC TO 400 MB. THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING...DESPITE CLOUD SHIELD...HIGH CAPES (4900 J/KG) AND
MOIST AIRMASS (1.94 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE).  TROPICAL UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN GULF WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADVECT WESTWARD WITH THE DEEP
LYRD SELY FLOW FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL MID TO LATE AFTN DOWNPOURS.

ANOTHER ISSUE...TEMPERATURES MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTING DOWNWARD BY 5
DEGREES WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. WILL MAKE 1ST PD CHANGES
TO WORDING OF FCST FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR HIGHER...GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS IN AND NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  NO
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

AVIATION-MARINE/SYNOPTIC-PUBLIC...CORDERO (64)
MESO...WATKINS/ABBOTT

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...NONE.

TXZ248>257-021800-

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
845 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2001

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND ONE
HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH.

ALONG WITH THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL IS
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...PRODUCING HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF A DIME...AND WIND GUSTS NEAR
60 MPH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TOMORROW...AND ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOURTH OF. JULY...HOWEVER...ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE FOURTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
INTENSE...AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY.

MILLER

TXZ248>257-021930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1135 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2001

     ...ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED TROPICAL DOWNPOURS
        ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS COMBINED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
RESULT IN RAPID PONDING OF WATER ON SOME AREA ROADWAYS AND LOW
LYING AREAS. HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND
ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH.

REMEMBER TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

ALONG WITH THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS...PRODUCING HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF A DIME...AND WIND
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...
AND ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOURTH OF JULY...HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE FOURTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS NUMEROUS...AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY.

CORDERO