Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
724 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2001

...OUTLOOKED TWO MARGINALLY SVR EPISODES TODAY...

VIL OF THIS MORNING IN CORE UVM HAS INCREASED FM 38 ON THE 00Z ETA
RUN TO 46 ON THE 06Z RUN (TROP ARD 31K) AND ADJUSTED HI ALGORITHM FOR
0 -20 OF 10 AND 20K.

OKX RADAR CONTS OTS THO THEY ARE ISSUING WARNINGS BASED ON ADJACENT
RADARS AND COORDINATION. BOX COORD SPC ON ETA MODELED INCREASINGLY
POTENT LATE AFTN EVENT.

MOS: CONVECTIVE POPS TODAY 80-100 PCT. RUNNING GENERALLY WITH AVN MOS
     TEMPS THRU FRI. USING NGM POPS FOR FOR THU AFTN CONVECTIVE CHC
     BENEATH NEXT STG SHORT WAVE. 431 AM PKG ALSO INCREASED NGM POPS
     FOR THE TNGT PRD BOS-ORH NWD BASED ON ARRIVING 06Z ETA.

1) MORNING EVENT ALONG AND S OF MA PIKE WILL PROB PRODUCE SMW TYPE
   CRITERIA WITH PROBABLE MARG SVR HAIL/WIND.

2) ETA STRONGLY SUGGESTS REGENERATIVE HEATING BENEATH COLD POOL WILL
   PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINAL SVR HAIL AND GUST 35 KTS IN THE 21Z-02Z
   TIME FRAME HFD-CEF-ORH. 06Z ETA SUGGESTS WDSPRD SMALL HAIL THIS
   EVE BUT PER COORD SPC...WE EXPECT ALSO AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF
   REPORTS OF 3/4 INCH OR GREATER. VIL OF THE DAY INCREASES INTO
   THE 50S RANGE LATER THIS AFTN.

SKYWARN: COORDINATOR IN THE OFFICE AT 730. CUD B A LONG DAY WITH THE
         MORNING EVENT PRIMARILY TRACKING ALONG S COAST CT/RI/MA.
         THEN AN EARLY AFTN BREAK BEFORE REFIRE BIGGER IN W CT AND W
         MA.

RECORD LOWS: WE DIDNT HIGHLIGHT IN THE FCST... BUT RER LOW POSSIBLE
             5/13     OR   5/14
BDL          51-1973       52-1940
PVD          52-1933       53-1999
BOS          56-1933

THE LISTING INCLUDES POTENTIAL WITHIN 2F.

LR: ANOMALOUS AND REFRESHINGLY COOL POOL TO FILTER INTO SNE THIS
    FRI/SAT BUT VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WX WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
    OUR AREA FOR A TIME OR SVRL TIMES BEGINNING NEXT TU/WED...THIS
    BASED ON YDYS MRF ENSEMBLES. NOTICING NICE RELATIONSHIP OF -PNA
    AND REPRESENTATIVE SNE METRO CLIMO SITE TRENDS AGAINST NORMALS.
    DECENT NEG PNA AND HEAT ARE DIRECTLY RELATED WITH PNA NEUTRAL
    KNOCKING OFF THE HEAT.

CLIBDL: DELETED NONRAIN .01 FROM YDYS CLIBDL... (NONOCCURENCE 09Z)

.BOX...NONE

DRAG

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-112300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2001

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 8
AM AND 2 PM MAY BECOME SEVERE...

CERTAINLY SOME LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN...POWER OUTAGES
FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS GREATEST ACROSS
CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

MARINERS ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF NOON.

AFTER THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SUNSHINE WILL RETURN. THE LATE DAY HEATING MAY CAUSE A NEW
LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AROUND 5 OR 6 PM IN THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. ONE OR TWO OF THESE LATE DAY STORMS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AT DAWN...SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES COVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

AMATEUR RADIO AND OTHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO eCLOSELY MONITOR
THIS SITUATION. SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS 7 AM
FOR CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

DRAG