Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
300 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2001

UPPER RIDGE NEARLY STATIC WITH ANALYSIS SHOWING CENTER OVR OK
PANHANDLE.  PRECIP H20 PLOT HAS HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL VALUES
OVR GREAT BASIN WHERE UPPER FLOW IS IN DIRECT CONNECTION WITH DAILY
CONVECTION OVER MEXICAN MTNS.  FOR THE BOU CWA...PLENTY OF RESIDUAL
SFC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY AS DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.  SOME OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS OF THE LAST TWO
DAYS IN AND NEAR THE URBAN CORRIDOR SHD AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR
TSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS AGAIN THIS EVE AND TUE.  CURRENT AND FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE STORM MOTION IN THE SLOW 5 TO 11 KT RANGE.  FOR
TONIGHT...MESO-ETA INDICATES A NORTHERLY SURGE TO ENTER THE CWA NEAR
00Z-03Z FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN WYO AND LAST NIGHTS MCS IN
NEB.  HAVE NOTICED EASTERLY WINDS IN THE MODELS EVERY AFT AND THIS
MAY BE MORE DUE TO THE MODELS RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL DAYTIME
HEATING AND SFC WIND REGIMES RATHER THAN ACTUAL COOL FRONTS.  WILL
WATCH HOW THIS SURGE ENTERS AREA FOR TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE NEARLY
CALM AND CHAOTIC IN WYO THIS MORNING...BUT THERE ARE STRONG MOISTURE
RICH EASTERLIES IN SOUTHERN NEB REACHING NE PLAINS ATTM.  AT ANY
RATE...CONVECTION A VERY GOOD BET FOR CWA TONIGHT AS THESE STRONG
EASTERLIES SHD HELP TO SUSTAIN UPSLOPE/WARM RAIN PROCESSES THROUGH
LATE EVE.  MESO-ETA CONFIRMS THIS BY GIVING WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP
VALUES IN THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH NEIGHBORHOOD ALONG THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND FOOTHILLS.  UPSLOPE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FROM SFC
TO THE 700-650MB LVL BY 03Z WITH 2-3DEGC COOLING AT 700MB.  HENCE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE APPROPRIATE FOR TONIGHT AND WILL ALSO
KEEP THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN TONIGHT.  IF HEALTHY RAIN DOES COMES
TO THE AREA TONIGHT...EVEN MORE RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS AVAIL FOR
TOMORROW WITH FCST SOUNDINGS EVEN CLOSER TO MOIST ADIABATIC.  WEAK
CYCLONIC CURVATURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEX/EL PASO TX
VICINITY AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT PLAYS A ROLE IN
TUESDAYS WEATHER WITH RESPECT TO ITS TIMING OF DAYTIME HEATING OR
WEATHER IT PRODUCES A DRY SLOT.  OTHERWISE...DYNAMICS ARE RATHER
BENIGN IN THE RIDGE...BUT WILL KEEP THE SCT POPS GOING INTO WED AS
WELL.  AVN AND ETA HAVE RIDGE HOLDING STEADY WITH THE DAILY SFC
EASTERLIES AND 850-700MB RHS STAYING RICH OVER DISTRICT.  WILL LOOK
FOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO ONCE AGAIN TO BE FOCUS FOR INITIATION.  HIGH
DEW PTS HAVE BEEN A GOOD GUIDE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS.  WOULD LIKE TO
CONSIDER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR THE EACH EVE PD WITH HIGH MOISTURE
AND OVERNIGHT CLEARING...BUT WILL HOLD OF FOR EVE SHIFTS.  LOOKS
LIKE THE STREAK OF 90S OR HIGHER IS IN JEOPARDY.  IF TDY FAILS...THE
STREAK ENDS AT 11 WHICH HAS HAPPENED ONLY 3 OTHER SUMMER IN DENVER
HISTORY.

EXTENDED PD THURS THRU MON...RIDGE REMAINS IN THE SAME VICINITY THRU
PD...HOWEVER THE CENTER RETROGRADES WEST ABOUT 500 MILES AND PARKS
ITSELF OVR NEW MEX BY SUN WITH DESERT HEAT KEEPING IT ALIVE.  THIS
WOULD TEND TO SHUT OFF THE TROPICAL MID AND UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM
MEXICO.  WILL NOT PINPOINT WHEN DRYEST DAY ARRIVES...ESPECIALLY WITH
NEAR SATURATED SOILS IN CWA...SO A CHANCE EACH DAY WILL WORK.  FSCT
TEMPS TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER TO NEAR NORMAL JULY VAULES THROUGH PD.

FREDIN

.DEN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...ZNS...35>36..38>43..45.