Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
330 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2001

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK INCREASINGLY WET FOR NERN CO AS STUBBORN
UPR LVL HIGH SPINNING OVR OKLAHOMA WOBBLES A BIT EASTWARD...OPENING
THE DOOR TO MONSOON FLOW.  H20 VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE MID/UPR LVL
MOISTURE STREAMING NWRD UP INTO UT AND WRN CO ATTM.  EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS FLOW IS A FAIRLY STG MID-LVL VORT MAX NOW OVR NWRN CORNER OF
STATE.  A SECOND VORT MAX CAN ALSO BE SEEN CREEPING N/NWWRD OVR THE
NRN TX/OK PANHANDLES.  IT/S THE NRN DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PROVIDE
THE ENERGY FOR EVENING T-STORMS OVR AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  IN
PAST HR T-STORM PASSING OVR FRASER PRODUCED MARBLE SIZE HAIL.  RADAR
HAS ALSO INDICATING FAIRY HVY RAINFALL /UP TO 1.5 INCH PER HR/ WITH
STORM CROSSING LARIMER CTY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 1.2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER THIS EVENING AROUND DEN...BOU...GLY AND
FCL...AND SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.  USING LATEST ACRS
SOUNDINGS...CAPES PROGD TO BE IN THE 1200 TO 2100 J/KG RNG IN PARTS
OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  FURTHERMORE WILL
HV TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG A SFC BNDRY SITTING NRLY
STNRY THE PAST SVRL HRS ROUGHLY FM CHATFIELD RESERVOIR/SW OF DEN/ TO
WIGGINS IN WRN MORGAN CTY.  COULD SEE A FEW HVY RAINERS CROP UP
ALONG THIS BNDRY WITH STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WK.  STORMS
ROLLING OFF FRONT RANGE THE NRN HALF OF URBAN CORRIDOR AND NRN WELD
CTYS COULD PSBLY BECOME SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND VRY STONG T-STORM
WINDS MAIN RISK.  WITH VORT MAX/SHRTWV OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...SKIES SHOULD GO CLR/MOSTLY CLR ALL AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL INCREASE PARTICULARLY BY
LATE INTHE DAY WITH PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER STG VORT MAX/SHRT WV
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF MONSOON MOISTURE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RISE AND DEWPTS E OF MTNS ALSO ON THE INCREASE WITH ARRIVAL
OF WHAT APRS TO BE A WEAK NLY SURGE DURING THE MRNG HRS.  CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW E-SELY FLOW DEEPENING DURING THE DAY WITH CAPES APCHG
TO 2500-3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTN UP ALONG THE FNT RNG FTHLS.  RIGHT
NOW CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR AREAS OF HVY RAINFALL IN AND NEAR
THE FTHLS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WILL REALLY NEED TO KP AN EYE ON
THIS.  WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE SHFT IN WINDS...TEMPS MAY
NOT RISE MUCH ABV 90 ON THE PLAINS.  HWVR AVN AND MRF TEMP GUIDANCE
LOOK TOO COOL...AS THEY HAVE FOR THE PAST SVRL WEEKS.

LOOKING AHEAD MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCES LOOK GOOD WE'LL HV
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR HVY LATE DAY RAINFALL MONDAY.  ALSO SEE DAYTIME
TEMPS ON THE PLAINS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 80S.  THIS WOULD BREAK
THE LONG STRETCH OF 90 DEG WX WE/VE BEEN HAVING.  LATER IN THE
WEEK...MEDIUM RNG MODELS SHOW UPR RIDGE OVR THE LOWER GREAT PLAINS
CREEPING WESTWARD...CONSEQUENTLY SHIFTING THE DEEPEST MONSOON FLOW
AWAY FROM US.  STILL THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO
PRODUCE THE TYPICAL ROUND OF AFTN AND EVE STORMS EACH DAY.  ALSO SEE
TEMPS RETURNING TO THE 90S ON THE PLAINS AFTER MONDAY/S BRIEF COOL
DOWN.    BAKER

.DfEN...NONE.