Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
245 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  ISOLATED STORMS DRIFTING OF THE FRONT RANGE
WERE PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MEASURABLE PCPN.  LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS REVEAL FREEZE LVL UP NR
15700 FT MSL...CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES NR 15500 FT MSL AND CAPES IN
THE 500-1200 J/KG RANGE OVR THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  FARTHER EAST HWVR
WHERE LATE AFTN AND EVE DEWPTS FCST TO BE THE UPR 50S/LOWER 60S...
CAPES ARE QUITE HIGH...IN THE 2800-4200 J/KG RANGE.  SEE NO SIGN OF
A CAP ATTM AS PER ACARS.  SO ANY OUTFLOW BNDRYS FM T-STORMS NOW
FIRING OVR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND FM STORMS RACING SERWD THRU ERN WY
SHOULD BE ALL THAT/S NEEDED TO IGNITE T-STORMS OVER THE NERN CTYS
NEXT 2-3 HRS.  AT PRESENT TIME...LOOKS AS THOUGH AREA E OF A LN FM
CHEYENNE TO BURLINGTON IN BEST LOCATION FOR T-STORM ACTVTY...WITH A
FEW EVE STORMS PSBLY GOING SVR.  HWVR NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT
PROSPECTS FOR SVR HAIL WITH FREEZ LVLS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE.  COULD
SEE STORMS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST LINGERING BEYOND MIDNIGHT.  MODELS
ALSO KP BNDRY LYR RHS HIGH OVRNGT IN THIS AREA PRBLY BECAUSE OF THE
LATE CONVECTION.  HWVR DO NOT SEE ANY FOG FORMING...MAYBE SOME LOW
STATUS BY DAWN.  THURSDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AND WARMER...
ALTHOUGH THE AVN SHOWS A BATCH OF MID-LVL MOISTURE PASSING OVR THE
CFWA DURING THE AFTN HRS.  THIS MIGHT ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER MAX
TEMPS GIVEN BY THE MAV...MEX AND FAN MOS GUIDANCE.  FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH STATUS QUO AND KP TEMPS NR THOSE OBSERVED TODAY.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  MODELS SLOWLY MIGRATE EWRD UPR LVL RIDGE NOW
ANCHORED OVR THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS RGN.  UNTIL RIDGE SHIFTS E
OMTNS SUPPOSEDLY SOMETIME ERLY NEXT WEEK...DO NOT SEE ANY SIG CHANGE
IN TEMP...RH...CLOUD CVR AND CHANCE FOR PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHOULD RIDGE MOV AS PROGD WE MIGHT FINALLY SEE THE SUMMER RAINY
SEASON BEGINNING NEXT WK...BUT WON/T HOLD MY BREATH WAITING FOR IT.
SO UNTIL THE SUMMER RAINS MATERIALIZE IN THE FOUR CORNERS RGN...WILL
JUST GO WITH THE USUAL CHANCE OF AFTN AND EVE T-STORMS EACH DAY
ALONG WITH LTL VARIATION IN TEMP THRU THE EXTENDED PD.

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-042100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
144 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN BORDER AND NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE PLAINS PRESENTLY.  EVEN
THE PLAINS UP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS HAVE FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINING AT THE LOW LEVELS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.  OVER THE PLAINS...THE NORTHERN BORDER AND NORTHEAST CORNER
CAN EXPECTED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM.  THE
REST OF THE PLAINS CAN EXPECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY 3 PM.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER
MAY PRODUCE WINDS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.  THIS THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO.

RJK