Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
322 AM MDT TUE JUL 3 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  CURRENT SATELLITE AND PROFILER DATA SHOW THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE CWA TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP US
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  CONSEQUENTLY TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE ONLY DIFFERENCES MIGHT BE A
TAD MORE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  SUSPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE WITH THE SUN THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE 03/06Z ETA AND
MM5 RUNS BOTH WANT TO BRING A BATCH OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION INTO
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH A HINT OF
SOME STRATUS BEHIND IT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.  IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS INDEED WORKS OUT.  FOR WEDNESDAY
THE ETA HAS QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION AMOUNT/COVERAGE FORECAST
THAN FOR TUESDAY AND THIS SEEMS OK.  D3D TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST MOST
PARCELS ENDING UP IN THE CWA AT 05/00Z WILL PROBABLY HAVE SUFFICIENT
TIME AND ASCENT TO PICK UP AT LEAST SOME OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
LURKING ABOUT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.  MOST OF THIS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS.  LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO HOWEVER ARE COMING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND SO THE LOW LEVELS MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO MOISTEN SOME OUT
THERE.  INDEED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FURTHER DOWN THE LINE THE LATEST MRF IS CONTINUING THE TREND FROM
LAST NIGHT OF PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
FRIDAY PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN FLOW
OVER COLORADO.  THIS WOULD ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE IN...
INCREASING THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINS AND DECREASING THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND. ET

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-032000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1019 AM MDT TUE JUL 3 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY.
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO WHERE A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED.  CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF
LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES.

WITH PLENTY OF HEATING AND DECENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BY 12 NOON.  OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 1 PM OVER LARIMER
AND WELD COUNTIES...THEN AFTER 3 PM OVER THE SOUTHERN DENVER AREA
AND DOUGLAS COUNTY.  OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS IN MORGAN...LOGAN...
WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS...AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES...STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 3 PM.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD SEVERE WITH STRONG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...MAYBE EVEN A TORNADO

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED TODAY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

RJK

COZ030>051-032100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1238 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO.  QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH IN FRONT OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT.  PLENTY OF HEATING AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH LIFT FROM THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.  A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...MAYBE EVEN A
TORN4ADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED BY 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

RJK