Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
300 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  IN THE SHORT TERM STORMS ROLLING OFF THE FNT
RNG FOOTHILLS LOOKING INTERESTING.  HWVR AS THEY DRIFT FARTHER ONTO
THE PLAINS INTO SOME PRETTY STABLE/CAPPED AIR MOST SHOULD DISSIPATE.
WHEREAS...HIGHER AREAS OF DOUGLAS...ELBERT AND LINCOLN CTYS COULD
SEE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS HV LKLY BEEN REACHED
WITH ALL THE SUNSHINE THEY SEEN.  HAIL MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STORMS GOING SVR.  OTWS...E-SELY
UPSLOPE FLOW BELOW 650 MBS PROGD TO REMAIN IN PLACE FM FTHLS
EASTWARD THRU WED NGT WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR
ARRIVING BY ERLY WED AFTN AS A COOL SFC HIGH SLIPS SEWRD OUT OF WY
AND FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FM ZONAL TO NWLY. ETA TEMP/ THICKNESS
GRIDS SHOW TEMPS ON WED SOME 5-8C LOWER THAN TODAY E OMTNS.  AM A
BIT SKEPTICLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF COOLING PORTRAYED BY ETA.  FOR NOW
WILL GO A FEW DEGS COOLER BASED ON THE AMT OF CLOUD DVR ANTICIPATED.
NOTE...12Z/ETA NOT FM NCEP BUT RATHER FM THE AIR FORCE.  SO NOT
KNOWING ITS BIASES WILL AVOID MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING
FCST.  YET...MM5...AVN AND NOGAPS LOOK SIMILAR TO AIR FORCE ETA.
WITH THAT IN MIND...DEWPT/RH GRIDS SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINING
HIGH NEXT 48 HRS WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE ALG FNT RNG WITH STRONGEST
UPSLOPE FLOW WED AFTN/EVE.  ETA QPF AMTS ALG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
0.10-0.25 INCH RANGE THIS TUE EVE /00Z-06Z/ WITH ANOTHER 0.15-0.35
INCH AMTS FM 18Z/WED TO 06Z/THU.  ETA AND AVN SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK
REAL FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WED...ALTHOUGH SPC SHOWS
NERN CO UNDER A GENERAL RISK.  CAN/T ARGUE WITH THAT AS T-STORMS
COULD POP WITH NEXT SURGE DURING AFTN HRS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  WARM UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR RGN ON THU...
ALTHOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE SLOW TO FLUSH OUT ALONG THE FNT RNG DURING
MRNG HRS.  BY AFTN...THINGS DRY OUT AND WARM UP WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NORMS.  FRI AND SAT LOOKS VRY WARM AND DRY WITH W-SWLY FLOW SFC
AND ALOFT.  SUN...MRF HINTS AT AN INCREASE IN MID-LVL MOISTURE OVR
THE MTNS AND FNT RNG FTHLS WITH SUBTROPICAL MSTR UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE.  THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC OF T-STORMS SUN AND LV IT
AT THAT.  BAKER

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-192000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1000 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A MOIST...BUT STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANY
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...
ENOUGH CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL STAY OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS ENTIRELY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

COZ030>051-192000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1000 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A MOIST...BUT STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANY
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...
ENOUGH CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL STAY OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS ENTIRELY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

COZ030>051-262100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
200 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE HAS LEAD TO A VERY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.  NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN FRONT RANGE

AREAS ADJACENT TO THE FOOTHILLS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
350 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2001

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR JUNE 19 2001...

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0130 PM    CONIFER                   CO   0.88 INCH HAIL
06/19/01   JEFFERSON

0130 PM    5 S CONIFER               CO   1.5 INCH HAIL
06/19/01   JEFFERSON

0155 PM    S CONIFER                 CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/19/01   JEFFERSON

0305 PM    CROW HILL                 CO   1.5 INCH HAIL
06/19/01   PARK

TS