Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
245 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: COOL MOIST AIRMASS UP AGAINST FRONT RANGE
MTNS NOW FCST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACRN NERN CO AT LEAST THRU TUES.
COLD UPR TROF HANGING BACK OVR NRN ROCKIES/COLUMBIA RVR BASIN
LOOKING COLDER...DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN WAS PROGD ON PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS.  BLOCKING RIDGES ON WEST AND EAST COASTS KEEPS H5 LOW/TROF OVR
NRN/CNTRL RCKY MTN REGION THRU TUE BEFORE IT SUPPOSEDLY FILLS AND
LIFTS NEWRD UP INTO MANITOBA BY MID-WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW MID/UPR
LVL FLOW TO GO ZONAL WHICH SHOULD FLUSH OUT COLD MOIST AIR ON THE
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  IN THE MEANTIME SHOULD SEE LOW/MID CLOUD COVER
ERODE NEWRD REST OF THIS AFTN AS DRY SWLY FLOW MIXES DOWN OFF THE
FTHLS AND MONUMENT RIDGE. ETA/MM5 MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOKING
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO SHEAR AND BNDRY LYR CAPE. RIGHT NOW
BELIEVE WE/LL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE MONUMENT RIDGE BEFORE
EXPANDING INTO AREAS EXPERIENCING SUNSHINE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF DEN
METRO AREA.  SPC HAS THIS AREA ON THE EDGE OF A MODERATE RISK FOR
SVR NEXT 12 HRS.  EVEN WITH SLOW WARMING AND CLEARING TODAY BELIEVE
WE WILL STILL SEE SOME STORMS GO SVR INTHIS AREA AS QG LIFT AND SFC
CONVERGENCE INCREASES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. SO WILL KP CHANCE OF
SVR IN FIRST PERIOD FOR ZNS E AND SE OF DEN METRO AREA.  ELSEWHERE
LATE AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS ALSO A PRETTY GOOD BET IN THE MTNS...
FTHLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR...BUT CHANCES ARE THEY WILL NOT GO SVR...
PARTICULARLY THOSE DRIFTING OFF THE FTHLS AND INTO HIGH CIN AIR.
HWVR...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MODELS THEN SHOW A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL MOIST AIR PUSHING UP
AGAINST FTHLS BTWN 06Z-09Z.  CLOUD CONDENSATE AND RH MM5 GRIDS SHOW
LOW CIGS AND FOG REFORMING ACRS NERN PLAINS AFT STORMS END ARND
MIDNIGHT.  ON MON...COOL MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUES WITH SFC TROF UP
AGAINST FTHLS.  SEE ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDY SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS WITH MOS GUIDANCE GIVING MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH MON
AND TUE ON THE PLAINS.  COULD ALSO SEE AROUND OF SHWRS AND T-STORMS
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF JET ENERGY PASSING OVR AREA DURING AFTN HRS.
NOT UNTIL LATE TUE DO MODELS SHOW SFC/H7 TEMPS WARMING AGAIN.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  MEDIUM MODELS NOW DELAYING BIG WARMUP UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVG OVR THE RCKY MTN RGN
BY LATE THU AND FRI.  BASED ON SLOW PROGRESS OF UPR LVL TROF NOW OVR
RGN...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.  SO WILL START WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY BUT
NOT UNTIL FRI AND SAT MIGHT WE SEE OUR WARMEST READINGS. EVEN WITH
DRIER AIRMASS MOVG OVR CWFA LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL KP SLGT CHC OF
AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND T-STORMS IN THE MTNS ALREADY IN FCST.  BAKER

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-040030-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
505 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS...VERY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOST UNSTABLE ON
MONUMENT RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE DENVER METRO AREA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE RECENTLY PRODUCED HAIL IN WESTERN ELBERT COUNTY.  ELSEWHERE THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS REMAINED CAPPED AND TOO COOL FOR THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION.  HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WITH ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL MOIST AIR FROM NEBRASKA.  COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE MORGAN...WASHINGTON...LOGAN...EASTERN
ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.  HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.  HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO STORMS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES.

SKYWARN AND WEATHER SERVICE STORM SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BOULDER WITH ALL REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

BAKER