Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
258 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERING MUCH IF THE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  A BIT OF LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN DETECTED ALONG WITH 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.  SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOW ANOTHER BATCH OF THE SAME COMING THIS WAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
LESS DRAMATIC AS IT WILL BE HERE AFTER DARK.  THE DIV-Q AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY GRIDS ALL SHOW SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  WILL PUT SOME CONVECTION...AND THE LIKE IN
SOME OF THE ZONES FOR EARLY EVENING.  BEST MOISTURE ACCORDING TO
SATELLITE AND GRIDDED FIELDS SHOULD BE ABOUT 03Z...THEN A GRADUAL
DECREASE.  GRIDS INDICATING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY JET MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND 06-09Z OVERNIGHT.  BY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...A
DECENT MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER DEVELOPS ALONG WITH A THICKENING
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS RATHER
BENIGN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DOWNWARD INDICATED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z.  THE MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE
ON TUESDAY...BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED FOR A WAVE
CLOUD OR TWO.  WILL HIT THE WINDS HARD STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...INTO TUESDAY DAY...BUT NO HIGHLIGHTS RIGHT NOW.  THEY
COULD BE NEEDED IN THE HIGHER AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS BY 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING.  FOR TEMPERATURES...GRIDS SHOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNINGS...THEN 0 TO 1.5 C COOLER FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.  RJK

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...TUE NGT THRU THU...STG PAC CDFNT WILL PRODUCE
STG BORA WNDS OVR MTNS...E SLPS AND PLAINS TUE NGT INTO WED.  WILL
NOT ISSUE HI WND WATCH ATTM BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED.  WILL KEEP WINDS
JUST BLO HI WND CRITERIA.  ONLY NEG TO HI WNDS OCCURRING IS PSBL
TURNING OF WNDS TO UPSLP OVR PLAINS DUE TO SFC LO PRES FORMING OVR
SERN CO.  THIS WUD KILL HI DWNSLP WNDS FOR PLAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR.
HWVR BOTH MESOETA AND AVN BOUNDARY LYR WNDS RMN N TO NW TUE NGT AND
WED.  STG COLD AIR ADVCTN WITH SYS WILL LWR H7 TEMPS TO AS LOW AS
-10C AT 12Z WED BUT COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE WED NGT WHEN SKIES CLR AND
WNDS DIMINISH.  AS JET STREAM MIGRATES N...AMS WILL START TO WRM AGN
ON THU.  GENLY FVR COOLER AVN MOS TEMP GDNC AND MESOETA SFC MAX TEMPS
OVR WRMR NGM MOS GDNC.

IN XTNDD PRD...FRI THRU MON...MRF BLDS UPR RDG OVR CNTRL RCKYS THRU
WKND.  ON MON A WK UPR TROF UNDERCUTS UPR RDG AND MOVES INTO AREA.
SO WILL MENTION CHC SNW SHWRS MTNS AND SLGT CHC RAIN SHWRS PLAINS ON
MON.  TEMPS WILL WRM ABV SEASONAL NORMS ON WKND...THEN COOL AGN MON.

GARD...WFO BOULDER

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-222000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1105 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SOME MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH WEST WINDS UP
TO 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 6500 FEET.  NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...THIS EVENING...OR OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

RJK