Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
235 AM MDT FRI AUG 31 2001

FLAT UPR LVL RDG WL GRADUALLY REBUILD ITSELF OVR AREA BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER FOR TODAY ANOTHER WK DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO MOVE ACRS NRN CO
BY AFTN.  THIS FEATURE DOES HAVE SOME WK QG ASCENT AND POTENTIAL
VORTICITY AT 300 MB IN GRIDDED DATA SO MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE OF TSTMS THIS AFTN AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  WOULD EXPECT
MOST ACTIVITY TO DVLP OVR THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS INITIALLY WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVR THE NERN
PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HRS.  BOTH MESO-ETA AND NGM
SHOW FAIRLY STG SE LOW LVL JET DVLPG THIS EVENING OVR NERN PLAINS
WHICH MAY KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT AS SOME TYPE OF MCS
DVLPS.  TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY BASED ON
LITTLE CHG IN LOW LVL TEMP FIELDS.

ON SAT UPR LVL RDG WL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD ACRS RGN HOWEVER
LINGERING MID LVL MSTR AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME AFTN TSTMS IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.  OVR NERN CO LOW LVL FLOW
IS FCST TO BECOME MORE NWLY WITH SOME DRYING OCCURRING SO TSTM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY.  TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON SAT
AS 700 MB READINGS RISE FROM 2 TO 3 DEGREES.  CANT FIGURE OUT TEMP
GUIDANCE FROM NGM AND MAV WHICH ACTUALLY SHOW TEMPS COOLER THAN
TODAY WHICH DOESNT MAKE MUCH SENSE BASED ON THEIR 700 MB TEMP
FIELDS SO WL GO ABV GUIDANCE.

IN THE EXTENDED PD UPR LVL RDG WL CONT OVR RGN THRU EARLY NEXT WK
WITH MID LVL FLOW BECOMING MORE S TO SW.  TEMPS SHOULD CONT TO BE
ABV NORMAL THRU THE PD.  WITH S TO SW MID LVL FLOW DVLPG MAY CONT TO
SEE SOME MONSOON MSTR OVR THE AREA WITH SOME AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS
MAINLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.   KLEYLA

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-312000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1040 AM MDT THU AUG 30 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
PLAINS WILL PRODUCE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL DELAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.  STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER.

A WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF DENVER THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE A LIKELY PLACE FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF
A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER THROUGH BENNETT TO CASTLE ROCK...WHERE THERE
IS THE BEST MOISTURE.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY
SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND UP TO AN 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY:  WARMER WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

GIMMESTAD