Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
305 PM MDT THU AUG 16 2001

A WEAK RIDGE CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.  TROUGHINESS OVR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CANADA EXTENDS SOUTH INTO GREAT LAKES REGION AND PROVIDES THE
CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVR STATE TODAY.  SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN IN HEIGHT FIELS...300MB POT VORT AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES.
CURRENT PROGRESS OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE AT 19KTS TO THE EAST
SO WILL AGAIN EXPECT THREAT OF FLOODING RAIN LOW ENOUGH NOT TO
MENTION IN ZNS.  WILL EXPECT A GENERAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH AVN SHOWING A 5940 METER HIGH OVR 4 CORNERS BY SUN
AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGE ALSO SHOWS NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST CROSSING MONTANA/CANADA BORDER WITH ONLY
MODERATE NORTH SFC WINDS OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCH.  MESO-ETA TAKES
THIS FEATURE AND BRINGS A WEAK SURGE INTO NORTHEAST COLO MIDDAY
FRIDAY.  WILL NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THIS SURGE WITH DOWNWARD FORCING
SEEN IN THE DIV-Q FIELDS.  AREA WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WITH THE SURGE AS THE RIDGE AXIS STILL HOLDS TO
THE WEST.  WILL DROP POPS ACROSS CWA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
RELATIVE TO TODAY DUE TO EXPECT DRYING AND INCREASED STABILITY.  ALL
MDLS SHOW ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE LOW LVLS FOR SATURDAY WITH RIDGE
AXIS UPON THE STATE.  TEMP GUIDANCE HAS COOLED A BIT BUT WILL ADHERE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS FCST NUMBERS AND ONLY NUDGE DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO
ON THE HIGHS.

EXTENDED PD SUNDAY THRU THURSDAY...THE BEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OCCURS OVR STATE IN THE EARLIER 48 HRS AS RIDGE OVR GREAT BASIN
WEAKENS WITH THE ADVANCE OF A DEEP LOW CURRENLY OFF WASH/CANADA
COAST.  FLOW OVR THE STATE WILL STRENGTHEN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY FLATTENS AND
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.  THIS WILL SHUT THE FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
OFF TO THE DESERT REGION ALONG WITH COLO.  NEXT BATCH OF MEXICAN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ENTERS THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AVN HINTS AT PLACING THE NEXT CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION
OVER NRN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.  THIS IDEA HOLDS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE MRF SHOWING EVEN RICHER MONSOON MOISTURE.   FREDIN

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-162000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1104 AM MDT THU AUG 16 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
NOW PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING WHICH WILL AID IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  THE CURRENT RADAR PICTURES ARE ALREADY SHOWING
ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

RJK