Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
240 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2001

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM DOUGLAS THROUGH
EASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES.  RAINFALL HAS BEEN INTENSE WITH SOME
STORMS...AND EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THAT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES...AND STORM MOTION
5 KTS OR LESS.  WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM.  LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME CIN IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 76...AND RADAR
BACKS THIS UP WITH STORMS MOVING INTO THAT AREA COLLAPSING.  WILL
THEREFORE KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SOUTH OF I-76
TONIGHT...BUT CANT RULE OUT STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN AREAS FARTHER NORTH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH PRIMED
AIRMASS.

LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR MOUNTAINS
WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
AGAIN BE A THREAT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT.  MODELS ALSO HINT AT SOME SORT OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...AND THIS
MAY BE REALIZED IF WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

RIDGE RETROGRADES AND BUILDS OVER NORTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING TO 600 DM.  HOWEVER...FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD BE VERY
WEAK SO MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE SCOURED OUT.  HOWEVER...WITH WARM
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND HINTS OF WEAK LEE TROFING...WILL DROP BACK TO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENIN,G STORMS OVER THE
PLAINS.

BARJENBRUCH

.DEN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS
         UNTIL 10 PM MDT...ZONES 35>36..38>51.

COZ030>051-022000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MDT THU AUG 2 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO COLORADO BY
THIS EVENING.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ALONG FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AFTER 1 PM.  THE STORMS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 4 PM...EVENTUALLY
SPREADING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AFTER 6 PM.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR MAY OCCUR.  FLASH FLOODING MAY
DEVELOP WITH THE STORMS THAT BECOME STATIONARY OR TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN
CORRIDOR.

A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE IN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

COOPER

COZ030>051-022100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
110 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
IN ADDITION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO COLORADO BY THIS
EVENING.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ALONG FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS.  ANOTHER CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDED FROM AROUND HOYT
IN SOUTHWEST MORGAN COUNTY TO NEAR CASTLE ROCK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST.  DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...2 TO 3 INCHES IN LESS
THAN AN HOUR MAY OCCUR.  FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP WITH THE STORMS
THAT BECOME STATIONARY OR TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.

AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH 10 PM.  A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE IN THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY MENTIONED EARLIER.  THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER
AND MAYBE EVEN A< SMALL TORNADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER RAINFALL REPORTS
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

COOPER