Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
255 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2001

PERSISTENT UPR LVL RDG WL BE DOMINATING NERN AND N-CENTRAL CO WX FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...PLUME OF MID AND
UPR LVL MSTR WL BE CROSSING THE AREA TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF AFTN
AND EVENING SHOWERS.  AT THIS TIME...SHOWER ACTIVITY OVR MTNS HAS BE
MOVG ALONG WHILE WEAK UPSLP FLOW CONTS ACRS THE PLAINS.  ACARS SNDGS
SHOWED SOME MID LVL CAPPING OF THE AMS TIL ABT 20Z...BUT LATEST DATA
SHOWS ABT 600 J/KG CAPE AND LTL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  TUTT LOW IS
PRESENTLY QUITE ORGANIZED OVR WRN NM...BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT IT
WL LOSE ITS IDENTITY ON THUR AS IT ROTATES NWD ARND THE UPR RDG.
RH FIELDS CONT HINTING AT A CONTINUATION OF MONSOONAL MSTR ALOFT.
AS LONG AS THIS CONTS...WL HAVE TO CONT MENTIONING AFTN AND EVENING
SHOWERS IN THE FCST.

OVR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE MRF SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE
UPR LVL RIDGE BLDG NWWD AND SETTING UP OVR SWRN WY.  HGTS ALSO RISE
TO NEAR 600 DM.  THIS SHIFT IN THE UPR AIR PATTERN COULD DECREASE
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS...BUT DIFFERENCES ARE NOT WORTH M7ENTIONING AT
THIS POINT.  TEMPS ARE GOING TO CONT ABV SEASONAL VALUES...AND
CURRNT FCST HAS THESE FEATURES COVERED.                   KDRBY

.DEN...NONE

COZ030>051-312000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1035 AM MDT WED AUG 01 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS: MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO COLORADO
FROM NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING
AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER STABLE THIS MORNING DUE TO THE INITIAL
CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR AND THE WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LATER TODAY DUE TO THE INITIAL INSTABILITY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO FIRE
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND EXTENDING OUT OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AFTER 3 PM. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EVEN MORE STABLE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS...AND STORMS THERE MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS THE SHEAR
PROFILE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND STRETCHING
INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. HAIL UP TO ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

OVERALL...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE MAIN THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN REPORTS AND HAIL OCCURENCES
FURTHER EAST WILL BE APPRECIATED. ENTREKIN

NSWE