Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
240 AM MDT MON JUL 30 2001

UPR LVL RDG WL GRADUALLY BUILD ACRS CNTRL PLAINS BY TUE AND ALLOW
FOR MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ALOFT AS UPR LVL TROF DVLPS OVR
NWRN US.  MONSOON MSTR NOW OVR PTNS OF AZ AND NM SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO RGN LATER THIS AFTN INTO TUE.  SHOULD SEE
SOME INCR IN HI BASED TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH A FEW STORMS SPREADING INTO NERN CO BY EVENING.  MOST OF THESE
STORMS WL BE DRY AND JUST PRODUCE GUSTY WNDS AND LIGHTNING WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME FIRE STARTS OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  TEMPS TODAY
WL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S
AGAIN OVR NERN CO.

ON TUE DON'T SEE MUCH CHG TO PTRN AS MONSOON MSTR REMAINS OVR AREA
IN SW FLOW ALOFT.  GRIDDED DATA SHOWS 700 MB TEMPS COOLING A FEW
DEGREES ON TUE SO AFTN HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER.  ONCE AGAIN
EXPECT SOME AFTN TSTMS OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SPREADING INTO THE
PLAINS BY LATE AFTN OR EVENING.

IN EXTENDED PD A WK FNT WL MOVE INTO NERN CO TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG
AND WL INCR LOW LVL MSTR AND BRING COOLER TEMPS.  WITH LOW LVL FLOW
MORE E TO SE ON WED AND THU SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS OVR RGN
WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 80S OVR NERN CO.  BY LATER IN THE WK UPR
LVL RDG BEGINS TO REBUILD OVR RGN HOWEVER ENOUGH MSTR WL PBLY LINGER
FOR A CONTINtUED CHC OF AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS.  KLEYLA

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-302000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1030 AM MDT MON JUL 30 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS: MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND
EXTENDING NOW UP THROUGH PARK COUNTY AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
INTO LINCOLN COUNTY. MOISTURE IS STILL MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. HENCE...STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE MAINLY GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH AND LIGHTNING.
COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY WILL STILL BE ISOLATED...BUT HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE.

LOCAL RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING A SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
ELBERT COUNTY AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND LOGAN COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST AND
WILL HELP KEEP THE SURFACE MOISTURE FROM BECOMING TOO DESERT LIKE
ACROSS THE URBAN COORIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO HELP TO FOCUS SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. STORMS WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN DRIFT OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY EVENING. THERE IS GREATER POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH HIGHER MOISTURE ~
LEVELS IN THE LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE CAPPED
AND CONVECTION MAY NOT BREAK THROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING...IF IT
ALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SWE

COZ030>051-302100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
145 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PALMER DIVIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WHICH HAVE BEEN
SNEAKING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTH. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH HAD
BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST IS SITUATED ALONG A LINE FROM
NEAR CASTLE ROCK AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO AROUND FORT MORGAN.
ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALREADY FIRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN DOUGLAS
AND ELBERT COUNTIES. AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTHWEST...ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL DEVELOP BACK INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR
AND WELD COUNTIES. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL LOW OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO...SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL STILL BE
GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE
PLENTIFUL WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. STORMS THERE MAY GET CLOSE TO SEVERE
LEVELS WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SWE