Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
255 PM MDT MON APR 2 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A COUPLE HEALTHY NEAR
STATIONARY BOUNDARIES ONE OVER THE EASTERN DENVER METRO AREA...THE
OTHER WELL EAST OF THE RADAR.  THIS IS JUST NOW A CELL DEVELOPING
ONE THIS BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WELD COUNTY.  RADAR
ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WIND SIGNATURE OVER
PARK...DOUGLAS...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.  A VIGOROUS DENVER CYCLONE
CONTINUES IN PROGRESS WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLIES BRINGING IN NEAR 50
DEGREE F DEW POINTS TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER.

18Z ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING PLENTY OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OUT EAST FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.
CAPES ABOVE 1000 JOULES/KG...GOOD POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BEAUTIFUL
SHEAR...A GREAT LOOKING...FAIRLY DEEP THETA-E AXIS OVER THE AREA...
EVEN SOME WEAK Q-G ASCENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TO WORK WITH.  ONLY
PROBLEM NOW IS NOT ENOUGH HEAT.  SOUNDINGS SAY MID 60S ARE NEEDED
...AND IT IS GETTING CLOSE.  CURRENT FORECAST IS OK...MAY GO A TAD
HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER...BUT NONE TO ISOLATED BACK
AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS.  LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOT GREAT
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL HIT THE WINDS THOUGH.  FOR TEMPERATURES
...GRIDS SHOW READINGS 1-2 DEGREES C WARMER FOR LOWS THEN THIS
MORNING'S.          RJK

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  SW FLOW ALF TO CONT OVER CO THRU THURS AS
TROF ELONGATES OVER PAC NW WITH LOW CENTER FORMING AND CLOSING
OFF NR THE CA COAST BY 12Z THURS.  THIS LOW IS THEN PROGD TO MOVE
INLAND THRU SRN CA THURS AND KICK NEWD FRI AND SAT.  AVN ACTUALLY
FORMS A NEW LOW CENTER IN UT FRI WHILE MRF KEEPS CLOSED LOW AS A
SINGLE ENTITY WHILE MOVING IT NEWD PAST 4 CRNRS TO NC CO AND THEN
INTO MN.  NOT SURE EITHER MODEL CORRECT KICKING THIS LOW SO FAST
AND SO FAR N BUT WILL DEAL WITH THAT IN NEXT PARAGRAPH.  AS FOR
SHORTER TERM SWLY FLOW STG ENUF AND DRY ENUF THAT MTNS...FTHLS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR SHUD REMAIN IN DRY DWNSLP PTRN FOR WINDY BUT
NO PCPN.  MAIN PRBLM FOR NEXT TW0 DAYS WILL BE CNVCTN IN NERN CO
DUE SELY FLOW AND INCRSG DWPTS E OF DEN.  AMS TO BECOME UNSTBL
ENUF TO WARRANT MENTN OF SOME AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS IN NERN
PLAINS AS LAPSE RATES TO BE IN THE 7-8 DEG C/KM RANGE WITH CAPES
PROGD TO RANGE FROM 400-1000 JOULES TUES AFTN E OF A FORT MORGAN
TO LIMON LINE.  LITTLE LESS CAPE ON WED AS STNRY BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO LIFT NEWD ENUF TO ALLOW DWPTS TO DROP BACK INTO 30S.  IN SHORT
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FCSTS FOR FIRST TWO DAYS WITH DRYER AIR
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM I-25 WEST EXCEPT FOR USUAL MTN CU.
FURTHER E...PTLY CLDY AND ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS OKAY FOR TMW WITH
LESS ACTVTY WED.

WILL LEAVE THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH AS IS SNC LATEST MRF TAKES LOW
ON AN EVEN FURTHER NRN JOURNEY THAN THE PREV 2 RUNS.  TWO DAYS AGO
MRF HAD LOW KICKING EWD THRU SRN AZ AND SRN NM.  YESTERDAY IT MOVED
IT PAST 4 CRNRS TO ERN CO AND THEN TO KS-NE BRDR.  NOW IT TAKES IT
NEWD PAST 4 CRNRS THRU NC CO TO MN BY SAT.  AVN EVEN FURTHER N WITH
LOW BY FORMING NEW CENTER OVER WY/MT.  HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO DUE TO THE FAST MVMT FCST FOR THIS SYSTEM AND FACT THAT
MOST STORMS THIS SEASON HAVE STAYED S NR THE MEXICO BORDER.  HAVE
CHC POPS IN FCST FOR THURS AND BYND ALREADY AND SEE NO WAY TO
IMPROVE ON THAT AT THIS TIME.  WEAK RDG TO MOVE ACROSS CO SUN WITH
SWLY FLOW RETURNING FOR SUN AFTN AND MON AS NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DIVE SWD ALG COAST.  THIS SHUD KEEP A LID ON PCPN FOR THOSE TWO DAYS
WITH LESS MSTR AVBL AND LACK OF DYNMCS.  APPEARS UPPER FLOW WILL BE q
STG ENUF TO CREATE GUSTY WINDS SUN AND MON AT LEAST IN MTNS AND HIER
FTHLS.           RUBBLE

.DEN...NONE.